Wednesday features another massive 15-game MLB slate. Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals:
Under 9.5 runs (-120)
The under in this game stands out as a preferred target for the sharps on Wednesday. The under has received just 37% of the bets on the over/under, but those bets have accounted for 60% of the betting dollars. A discrepancy that large is usually a good indicator that the big bets – which come from professional bettors – are siding with the under.
The Blue Jays obviously have one of the best offenses in baseball, but they will face a tough test vs. Josiah Gray. Gray is still building his resume at just 23 years old, but he has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in the league in the future. He entered the year as the No. 19 prospect in baseball per FanGraphs, and he’s allowed just five earned runs over 16 innings pitched in three starts with the Nationals. He had his best performance two starts ago vs. the Braves, racking up 10 strikeouts while allowing one earned run over five innings.
On the other side, the Blue Jays will turn to Jose Berrios. He was their big acquisition before the trade deadline, and while he’s not a true ace, he’s a very reliable starter. He’s pitched to a 3.58 FIP this season, so he should have no problems against a Nationals lineup that was gutted before the trade deadline.
Overall, I’m expecting a low-scoring contest.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees:
Red Sox ML (+100)
The Yankees are red hot and the Red Sox are ice cold, which has allowed the Yankees to leapfrog the Red Sox in the standings. Those two teams are battling with the A’s for the two Wild Card spots in the American League, so these head-to-head matchups are crucial at this point in the season.
Most of the bettors in this contest are siding with the Yankees, but I think this is a good time to buy low on Boston. They’re facing left-hander Andrew Heaney, who has been an unmitigated disaster this season. He’s pitched to a 5.78 ERA over 21 starts, including a 9.00 ERA in three starts with the Yankees. The Red Sox have plenty of big, right-handed bats in their lineup, so things don’t figure to get any easier for Heaney on Wednesday.
The Red Sox will have the clear edge at pitcher with Nick Pivetta on the mound, so I like their chances of pulling off the upset.
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals:
Brewers ML (-120)
You don’t get too many opportunities to bet on Freddy Peralta as just a slight -120 favorite, so I’m not overthinking this one. Peralta has blossomed into one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He’s always been an elite strikeout pitcher – he’s posted a K/9 of at least 12.18 in each of the past three seasons – and he also excels at keeping the ball in the ballpark. That’s a dominant combination, so it’s not surprising that he owns a 2.26 ERA and a 2.50 xERA this season.
The Cardinals will have a quality starter of their own on the mound in Jack Flaherty, but he’s making just his second start since coming off the 60-day IL. His 4.40 xERA is also significantly worse than Peralta’s, so I think the Brewers should be larger favorites in this matchup.
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