We’ve reached the middle of the week and that brings a solid 11-game slate of baseball starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. We’ll go over all the info you need to be successful. At least, I think you will be.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Corbin Burnes, $10,300, Milwaukee Brewers (-335) at Chicago Cubs (+260) — Burnes and the Brewers are massive favorites tonight as they continue their series with the Cubs at Wrigley Field. As has been the case all throughout this series, rain will once again be an issue, so keep an eye on that. If anything plays out smoothly, Burnes will have the opportunity to dominate this club once again after throwing six shutout innings while striking out 10. That was even BEFORE the Cubs cleared out their roster, as that start came way back in the beginning of April.
The problem with Burnes from a daily fantasy sense is that he’s been too expensive. Scoring in the mid-20’s in fantasy points is great and all but not when you’re over $10,000. Realistically, we need 30+ from him when he’s in this salary range. Luckily for him, since the beginning of the month, the Cubs have the highest K% in the league at 32.8%. It’s be a wide margin as well, as the Tigers are ranked second at 28.7%. The Cubs high strikeouts go well with their overall poor offensive numbers in that span, posting a .274 wOBA, a .111 ISO and a 71 wRC+. This would be a spot to go heavy on Burnes from a DFS standpoint, although ownership and weather could be an issue. His strikeout prop was not up on DraftKings Sportsbook this morning as I wrote this, but I’d be interested in the over if it was set as high as 8.5 and potentially 9.5 depending on the line. He should dominate this start.
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Highest Projected Total
Detroit Tigers (-170; 4.5 runs) at Baltimore Orioles (+150; 4.5 runs) 10 runs — We have a number of games on the board tonight that have a run total projection of 10 runs. This is one of those games and one of the more interesting ones to write up, in my opinion. The Orioles have been a good team hitting the over, doing so in 54.6% of their games while the Tigers remain one of the worst at only 46.4.
The matchup tonight, at least on paper, feels like it should be an easy over. I mean, when you’re rolling Tarik Skubal ($6,300) and Matt Harvey ($5,000) out the mound, runs usually follow. HOWEVER, both of these pitchers have been....kind of good, lately? Harvey has been pitching very well as of late and it’s kind of confusing because it came out of the blue. Since the beginning of July, Harvey has allowed a total of eight runs through FIVE starts. I mean, he used to give up eight runs through five innings, let alone five starts. In that span, he’s gone 26 innings and has a 3.09 FIP with a .250 wOBA and a 36.6% hard-hit rate. One of those starts came against this Tigers team, whom he shutout for 6 1⁄3 innings.
The concern for the over to hit comes with these bullpens, as both have been bad. So I think how I want to attack this game from a betting perspective is go under 5.5 runs through the first five innings. People seem to be catching on a bit because the under is currently sitting at -120 on the DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over is at +100. It feels insane to take an under with these two taking the mound but at least with how things have gone lately, it feels like the play, regardless of how gross it feels.
Weather Notes
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs - Rain won’t stop bothering Wrigley Field. Same scenario is the past few nights, so keep an eye on this. I know rain is great for the environment but ya know, take a three hour break so we can get this game in.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jake Arrieta, .386, 6.43
Dylan Bundy, .349, 5.54
Josh Fleming, .335, 5.05
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Wade Miley, .235, 2.95
Tyler Anderson, .236, 2.95
Corbin Burnes, .252, 1.75
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Wil Crowe, .413, 6.77
Jake Arrieta, .390, 6.07
Matt Harvey, .372, 4.20
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kevin Gausman, .200, 2.61
Alek Manoah, .202, 3.70
Corbin Burnes, .223, 1.55
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Kevin Gausman, San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $9,900 — This is the fourth time that Gasuman will be facing the Diamondbacks this season and let me tell you, he LOVES facing this team. He’s thrown 19 innings against them, allowing just three runs on 14 hits and 23 strikeouts, which averages out to 28.2 DKFP. Going even further, he has a 1.22 FIP and a 31.1% K% against this club. There is absolutely no reason to think that he can’t breeze through this lineup once again. Using him and Burnes is tough, as they’re the two most expensive pitchers on this slate but I think trying to figure out a way to do so is vital. It leaves you with an average of $3,725 per hitter, which will force you get to creative but most likely worth it.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, $4,400 — The Dodgers will be starting David Price ($6,600) tonight at Philly. It’s a great matchup for Realmuto, who has hit lefties extremely well. He enters this game with a .375 wOBA, a .202 ISO and a 135 wRC+. Most of the struggles for Price in the small sample have come away from Dodger Stadium, where he has a 4.89 FIP, compared to the 3.64 at home. Realmuto has seen quite a drop in his salary as of late despite averaging 10.6 DKFP over his last 10 games. Just a few games ago, he was over a $1,000 more in salary than he is currently.
Save Big by Drafting
Austin Hays, Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers, $2,500 — Hays is always in play for the Orioles when they’re facing a lefty. I do like this game to go under but that won’t shy me away from taking some of the bats in this game. Against lefties, Hays’ numbers are vastly different compared to when he faces righties. Against southpaws, Hays has a .383 wOBA with a .243 ISO and a 146 wRC+. As for Skubal, he’s been better lately but but the home run ball remains a massive issue, with a 2.39 HR/9 against righties.
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