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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for August 10

Steve Buchanan breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

After a very small slate of games last night, we are SO BACK with all 30 teams in action starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get right into all the information you need for tonight, shall we?

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Carlos Carrasco, $8,000, New York Mets (-225) vs. Washington Nationals (+185) — So, I’m cheating a little bit here as the Padres (-240) are actually the biggest favorites on this slate but they don’t have a starting pitcher listed. Doesn’t make a lot of sense to write them up. The Mets are next in line, as they start Carlos Carrasco ($8,000) in his third start of the season. Through 8 13 innings, he’s allowed three runs on eight hits with nine strikeouts against the Reds and Marlins. He has another light matchup tonight against the Nationals.

The issue with Carrasco is that he still is being used sparingly. He topped out at 62 innings in his last outing, which means he’s likely in this range once again. Realistically, we can expect maybe five innings out of him tonight, which isn’t terrible but he would need to be nearly perfect to get 3x out of for daily fantasy purposes. The Nationals offense hasn’t been awful since the trade deadline, posting an overall .320 wOBA, a .163 ISO, a 96 wRC+ and a 20.5% K% since then. If I had to choose, I would feel better backing the Mets through the first five innings but even that is at -230. This doesn’t feel like a game I need to actively have bets on, especially with how big of favorites the Mets are. Don’t forget, this is a team in a complete landslide, going 2-8 over the last 10 games.

Highest Projected Total

Detroit Tigers (-110; 5.5 runs) at Baltimore Orioles (-110; 4.5 runs) 10.5 runs — These teams are even on the moneyline but the Tigers have the run total advantage at 5.5 runs against Keegan Akin ($5,100). The Orioles are one of the better teams hitting the over on the game total at 58-49-3 (54.2%) while the Tigers are one of the worst at 50-59-5 (45.9%).

Akin had recently been demoted to the bullpen but will be slotted back into the rotation, at least for now. His time as a starter was less than desirable, as he 33 2/3 of the 51 2/3 total innings and amassed a 6.08 FIP, a 2.1 HR/9, a 4.8 BB/9 and a 34.8% hard-hit rate. He’s also a lefty, which isn’t great if you’re facing the Tigers. The Tigers have a .329 wOBA, a .161 ISO and a 108 wRC+ against lefties this season, which isn’t good news for Akin. He’s only pitched 13 of an inning against the Tigers this season and allowed no runs but gave up two hits. I don’t expect Akin to last very long, which means the Tigers will get into the Orioles bullpen early as well. That could be an even better scenario, as the Orioles relievers over the past week have a 8.15 FIP, a 6.8 BB/9 and a 3.2 HR/9 through 19 2/3 innings. Give me the over on that Tigers team total, please.

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Weather Notes

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles- This game could start in a delay but once they get going, they shouldn’t have any issues the rest of the evening.

Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Indians - Storms will be in the area and they’ll be slow moving. That’s never a good thing if it ends up over the stadium. This will need a second look before first pitch.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Dallas Keuchel, .350, 4.73
Drew Smyly, .344, 4.84
Eduardo Rodriguez, .341, 3.81

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Sean Manaea, .241, 3.28
Max Scherzer, .255, 3.47
Logan Gilbert, .274, 2.92

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
J.A. Happ, .398, 5.98
Keegan Akin, .380, 5.12
Daniel Lynch, .370, 4.59

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Nestor Cortes, .208, 2.34
Luis Patino, .237, 3.13
Jose Suarez, .244, 3.74

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Indians, $10,000 — We have to watch the weather in this game but if it plays, I want to get Manaea in my lineup. He’s coming off a tough outing against the Padres, who lit him up for five runs on eight hits through just 4 13 innings but it was a small blip on the radar on what’s been a stellar run for him lately. He faces a weaker Indians lineup than he saw almost a month ago when he allowed three runs on seven hits with seven strikeouts through 5 13 innings. This club now has a .290 wOBA, a .139 ISO and an 82 wRC+ against lefties, all of which are some of the lowest in the league. Manaea has also been better on the road, where his numbers drop to a .252 wOBA, a 2.79 FIP and just a 0.78 HR/9.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers, $4,800 — Mullins gets a great matchup against Casey Mize ($7,300) in what is projected to be one of the highest scoring games on this slate. Mize’s numbers against lefties continue to be a struggle, as he sports a .341 wOBA, a 5.72 FIP and a 2.1 HR/9 against them. The switch-hitting Mullins continues to rake at the plate, averaging 13 DKFP over his last 10 games with three home runs, four RBI and five stolen bases. Mullins is doing a little bit of everything right now and getting him at under $5k on a slate where it feels as if many players are overpriced is key.

Save Big by Drafting

Sam Hilliard, Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros, $2,200 — Hilliard is MASHING the ball right now. The month of August has been quite a show for him thus far, logging multi-hit games in four of the six he’s played, which includes four home runs, three doubles and eight RBI. Tonight, he should be in the lineup against Jake Odorizzi ($7,700) who has allowed six home runs over his last TWO starts against the Dodgers and Mariners. Against lefties, Odorizzi has a .341 wOBA, a 5.28 FIP and a 1.6 HR/9.

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