Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Rockies vs. Padres Showdown on July 31

This week’s Saturday night Showdown contest on DraftKings takes us to the NL West for a matchup between the Colorado Rockies and the San Diego Padres. The two teams split the first two games of this series, with the Padres winning 3-0 on Thursday behind Joe Musgrove followed by the Rockies getting a 9-4 win on Friday night. The Rockies surprised many people by not moving Trevor Story ($14,400 CP; $9,600) at the trade deadline, and then the star SS was scratched Friday after he was vocal about being “confused” by the lack of a trade. The Rockies are 4-6 in their past 10 games and 14 games out of the second Wild Card spot, which is currently held by the Padres, who have gone just 5-5 over their past 10 games.

The big news on the Padres’ side of this matchup is that Fernando Tatis Jr. ($16,800 CP; $11,200) was diagnosed with a left shoulder subluxation after leaving Friday’s game and could end up on the injured list as a result. Tatis was sidelined earlier this season with a similar injury, but the team is still hopeful that he may be able to return more quickly this time. Without Tatis, the Padres will have to take on Colorado’s best starter, German Marquez ($15,600 CP; $10,400), but San Diego will counter with a strong starter of their own, Yu Darvish ($16,500 CP; $11,000). The Padres are still solid favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook at -200 and the over/under is set at just 7.0 runs due to the strong starting pitching.

It’s an interesting pitching matchup that includes some intriguing fantasy plays, so let’s take a look at how to construct your DraftKings lineups for Saturday night’s Showdown contest.

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Captain’s Picks

Ryan McMahon ($9,600 CP) - One of the few bright spots for the Rockies this season has been the emergence of McMahon as a solid fantasy option, who brings nice positional versatility and typically hits in the middle of the order. He was the star of Friday night’s win, going 3-for-3 with a grand slam and a pair of walks on his way to 32 DKFP. McMahon now has 17 homers on the year with a .211 ISO, .345 wOBA and 101 wRC+.

He’s a great option at this salary since he leaves plenty of flexibility to pay up for both SPs or other big bats in your flex spots while also bringing his strong run of recent production. Since the All-Star break, McMahon has been making great contact, with a 48.3% hard-hit rate per Statcast and only one of his 29 batted balls during that span has been classified as “soft contact” by Fangraphs. He has a .361 average, .167 ISO, .444 wOBA and 165 wRC+ over his past 10 games, and before you think that’s all just Coors Field, it’s important to note that six of those 10 contests have been on the road. McMahon has also had success in this specific matchup, going 5-for-15 with a double, a triple and a home run in his previous meetings with Darvish.

German Márquez ($15,600 CP) - Even though he has a tough matchup taking on the Padres’ solid lineup, Márquez is the starting pitcher I’d prefer to build around in this contest. He comes in with outstanding recent form, allowing more than two runs just three times over his past 12 starts and compiling a 6-4 record with a 2.38 ERA and 2.74 FIP over that stretch. He has a 9.17 K/9 rate on the season and has been even better lately, posting an 11.72 K/9 rate over his past four outings. He faced the Padres during that run of success on July 10 and went seven shutout innings allowing just three hits and striking out nine for 35.4 DKFP. He has over 19 DKFP in eight of his past 10 games and will face a slightly less daunting task without Tatis in the Padres’ order. Márquez still seems underrated, overall, and he can be a solid anchor for your lineup in this contest.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $8K Extra Inning [$2K to 1st] (COL vs. SD)

Value Plays

Adam Frazier ($6,600) - The Padres acquired Frazier at the trade deadline from the Pirates, and he has started three of his four games with San Diego, batting leadoff in each of those starts. On the season, Frazier is hitting .319 with a .120 ISO and .358 wOBA while leading the majors in hits with 128. Even though he doesn’t bring as much power potential as some of the top options, he’s a great value since his salary hasn’t adjusted yet for his much-improved run-scoring potential in a better lineup with the Padres. He almost always has productive at-bats and hardly ever comes up empty, so give him a look as a value play, especially if he’s hitting leadoff again.

Connor Joe ($4,400) - Joe has shuttled back and forth to Triple-A a few times this season, but the versatile 28-year-old should get plenty of playing time the rest of the season. He had good numbers with the Albuquerque Isotopes, hitting .311 over 25 games with eight home runs and 24 RBI. While he struggled a little bit during his earlier call-ups, he looks ready to make the transition to the big leagues permanent this time and has picked up three multi-hit games in five starts while going 8-for-23 with a 43.8% hard-hit rate and four barrels in 15 events. He hit his second homer of that stretch after being added to the lineup Friday when Story was scratched. He brings solid upside from a near-minimum price and could continue to emerge as a value option the rest of the season.

Fades

Tommy Pham ($9,000) - Pham started this series with a nice game in the leadoff spot, going 2-for-4 with 14 DKFP. However, that was his first good game in a while after coming out of the All-Star break and going 3-for-36 (.097) in his previous 10 games before Thursday’s breakthrough. Pham has likely lost his leadoff spot to Frazier (see above), and if he’s batting lower in the lineup he won’t have quite as much run-scoring potential. Pham can definitely run hot-and-cold at times, and his $9K salary is too much for me in this matchup with Márquez. The other bats around this same price point have much more attractive recent form, and I’d rather find a way to pay up for Jake Cronenworth ($9,400) or Manny Machado ($10,200) than save salary with Pham, Wil Myers ($8,600) or Eric Hosmer ($8,400) who have all been scuffling a bit.

The Outcome

I expect this to be a well-pitched, low-scoring game as the over/under indicates. Both these starters have been good lately and have had success against this specific opponent. Without Tatis, the Padres’ lineup is definitely a little thinner, and Márquez should be able to contain them enough to help the Rockies pull off another upset.

Final Score: Rockies 4, Padres 1

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $8K Extra Inning [$2K to 1st] (COL vs. SD)

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