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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for July 30

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Yesterday was complete madness on trade deadline eve and quite frankly, today could be more of the same. After the deadline ends at 4 p.m. ET, we’ll fully know the landscape of MLB and we look toward tonight’s slate, which by the way, features all 30 teams.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Lance Lynn, $10,300, Chicago White Sox (-225) vs. Cleveland Indians (+180) — It’s been awhile but the highest priced pitcher for daily fantasy is also the biggest betting favorite on this slate. Oddly enough though, for as dominant as Lynn has been, betting on him hasn’t been as profitable as you’d imagine. The White Sox are 10-8 in games he’s started but only 4-5 since the beginning of June. Ever further in the “this doesn’t make sense” department, Lynn hasn’t been that great against this light hitting Indians team, allowing five runs on nine hits through 11 innings. His advanced numbers are in line with his on the surface ones, as his 3.88 FIP is very close to his 4.09 ERA. Of course, what this Indians lineup looks like after the deadline could be vastly different than what he’s seen before. Cesar Hernandez ($3,500) is already out the door and will be playing against his former team tonight. Jose Ramirez ($5,700) has been the subject of rumors in the last few days, so that’ll be an important piece to watch as well. While the juice is high, I don’t mind backing Lynn in this spot.

Highest Projected Total

Kansas City Royals (-185; 3.5 runs) at Toronto Blue Jays (-220; 5.5 runs) 10.5 runs — With every team on the board, I was surprised to see only one game with a game total in the double-digits. This game has over written all over it, barring the Royals end up standing pat and keeping their offense intact. Daniel Lynch ($5,200) is pitching for the Royals while Ross Stripling ($7,800) is going for the Jays. The clear and obvious side to focus on is the Blue Jays, who have one of the highest team total on this slate at 5.5 runs.

Lynch is a lefty, which is not good for him against this Blue Jays team. After roughing up Eduardo Rodriguez last night, the Blue Jays now sport .336 wOBA (6th) a .182 ISO (8th) and a 111 wRC+ (T-5th) against left-handed pitching. Lynch has only thrown 16 innings in the majors but has a bloated 7.88 ERA in that span. His FIP indicates he’s been very unlikely, as that sits at 3.53. Of course, with such a small sample, these numbers will move drastically as he logs more innings. Nonetheless, this is the toughest matchup he’s endured in his four starts. You cannot make many mistakes against this Blue Jays team as they have so many ways to beat you 1-9. This total could easily slide up to 6.5 so I don’t mind paying for some of the juice on this at -140.

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Weather Notes

No weather concerns!

Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
JC Mejia, .429, 7.33
Trevor Williams, .374, 4.75
Vince Velasquez, .371, 5.22

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Patrick Sandoval, .222, 3.57
Ryan Weathers, .230, 2.84
Corbin Burnes, .241, 1.39

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Wil Crowe, .414, 6.74
Daniel Lynch, .400, 3.74
Jon Lester, .395, 6.19

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kevin Gausman, .191, 2.64
Jose Berrios, .213, 2.78
Corbin Burnes, .213, 1.32

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Chris Bassitt, Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, $9,600 — Last night we were on Frankie Montas, who netted us a cool 36.2 DKFP in a seven inning shutout against the Angels. Now, we’re going right back to the well and taking Bassitt to hopefully do more of the same. He’s completely shut down this offense twice already, throwing 16 23 innings allowing just two runs on seven hits and 17 strikeouts, good for an average of 37.6 DKFP. So you may ask, Steve, please tell me if the advanced numbers back it up. Where I would say, yes, yes they do. Bassitt has a 1.48 FIP, a 28.8 K% and a .152 wOBA against this team. This isn’t hard to figure out who to use as your SP1.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, $5,400 — I’m a fan of the Mariners going over the 4.5 run team total they have set for tonight against Kolby Allard ($5,100) who is in the midst of his worth month of the season. Through 20 2/3 innings this month, Allard has allowed 21 runs (18 earned) on 24 hits ,including six home runs. His FIP is also the highest for any month this season at 5.92. Haniger continues to be one of the more under appreciated hitters going right now and has always been a force against lefties. Haniger sports a solid .292 wOBA with a .371 wOBA and a 141 wRC+. I’m all for stacking the Mariners tonight and Haniger is the anchor.

Save Big by Drafting

Michael Brantley, Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants, $3,000 — With this game taking place in San Francisco, we do run the chance that Brantley will be on the bench with no DH. If he is in the lineup, I’m absolutely using him as my top value play against Kevin Gausman ($9,400). While he was pitching at an elite level for the first few months of the season, that’s seemingly tailed off in the month of July. What caught my attention was his numbers against lefties this month. He’s faced 41 lefties this month and they’ve tagged him for a .514 wOBA, a 7.79 FIP and six extra base hits out of the 13 total he’s given up. At $3,000, Brantley could be a huge value if he cracks the starting lineup.

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