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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for July 29

Steve Buchanan breaks down Thursday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

See? I was ranting about how much Wednesday’s slate was great because usually it’s not that big. Then we get slapped with a five-game slate Thursday night. We will overcome this and concur this slate.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Joe Musgrove, $8,200, San Diego Padres (-280) vs. Colorado Rockies (+225) — Musgrove has been a tough one to figure out lately. The first month as a Padre made them look like geniuses, tossing a no-hitter in his second start. Once the calendar turned to May, things took quite the turn. From a fantasy sense, Musgrove hardly pays off his salary. In fact, he’s only gone 3x his value four times this season. Four. That’s not good. One of those starts DID come against this Rockies team, when he scored 40.55 DKFP. He’s simply been a tough pitcher to trust both from a betting and daily fantasy sense. In the starts he’s made, the Padres are 10-10 on the moneyline and only 1-4 in July.

The Rockies are certainly a team to bet against but I can’t do it with a -280 on Musgrove. He’s in the midst of his worst month with the Padres and has a .344 wOBA, a 4.09 FIP and only a 17.7% K%. It’s not as if he’s faced a lot of tough competition either, going against the Marlins, Nationals, Rockies and Nationals. In that start against the Rockies, the Padres lost and only saw Musgrove go 4 1/3 innings allowing two runs (one earned0 on five hits but throwing 94 pitches. Until we see more consistency, he can’t be trusted at this point.

Highest Projected Total

Toronto Blue Jays (-105; 4.5 runs) at Boston Red Sox (-115; 4.5 runs) 10 runs — With only five games on this slate, we don’t have many options to choose from for the highest game total. The Blue Jays and Red Sox will once again carry that title as they wrap up the series at Fenway Park tonight. Hyun-jin Ryu ($8,600) will be taking on Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,800) with both teams tabbed with a 4.5 team total. As I’ve mentioned before, neither team has found much success with hitting the over on the game total, as both the Blue Jays and Red Sox are under 50% at 46.3% and 45% respectively.

Neither pitcher has been particularly dominant against their opponents, as Ryu has gone 12 innings allowing four runs on 12 hits and Rodriguez with seven runs on 14 hits in 11 innings. Both teams are amongst the top in the league against lefties according to wRC+ with the Blue Jays at 107 and the Red Sox at 106. Looking at a lot of this information, I think the over is in play for almost all the categories we see with the game total and the team totals. The overall over/under numbers won’t point in that direction but with how well both teams are hitting lefties, this is not a game I would want to be on the under.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Bat Flip[$50K to 1st

Weather Notes

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox - While this game does have the biggest game total it also has some weather concerns. Rain is in the forecast all throughout the evening, so we’ll need to keep an eye on this one.

Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Freeland, .395, 5.61
Dylan Bundy, .371, 5.91
Casey Mize, .350 5.86

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Freddy Peralta, .244, 4.04
Frankie Montas, .289, 2.90
Joe Musgrove, .298, 4.08

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dylan Bundy, .363, 5.25
Kyle Freeland, .358, 5.25
Frankie Montas, .343, 4.63

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Freddy Peralta, .214, 2.22
Joe Musgrove, .240, 3.01
Casey Mize, .264, 3.53

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, $9,000 — To say that the pitching options for tonight are underwhelming would be a nice way to put it. It’s quite difficult to find someone you love to put as your SP1. I’m rolling with Montas making his third start against the Angels. He’s pitched extremely well against this club through 12 2/3 innings, allowing six runs (two earned) on 11 hits with 15 strikeouts and a 1.26 FIP. The strikeouts caught my attention because this team isn’t exactly a great matchup for them, as the Angels have a 23.4% K%, which ranks 18th against righties. They also are dealing with a number of injuries and are rolling out a “B” lineup as of late. At $9K, I think Montas is the guy for tonight.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, $5,700 — Bo is heating up and that’s never a good thing for opposing pitchers. The studly shortstop is averaging 10.2 DKFP over his last 10 games, which includes two home runs, nine RBI and three stolen bases. Bichette is smashing left-handed pitching this season and currently has a .409 wOBA, a .191 ISO and a 160 wRC+. While Rodriguez has been pitching better as of late, I can’t deny how well Bo is smashing the ball right now. He’s one of my favorite overall hitters on this short slate.

Save Big by Drafting

Rowdy Tellez, Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, $2,600 — Rowdy is dirt cheap despite being an RBI machine as of late. Over his last 10 games he’s knocked in 10 runs to go with three home runs, a double and 9.7 DKFP. He faces Chad Kuhl ($6,400), who doesn’t like to face left-handed bats. I mean the numbers don’t lie, Kuhl has a .333 wOBA, a 5.48 FIP and a 1.4 HR/9. If the Rowdy one is going to continue to knock in runs, he’s a steal at $2,600.

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