With all the brutal weather seemingly in our rearview mirror, there’s no shortage of MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s what stands out to me for Friday’s action.
If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.
The Brewers have been striking out a lot against right-handed pitching this month, and quite a few of those pitchers weren’t ones who rack up strikeouts like Giolito. Most recently, Brad Keller (7.9 K/9) punched out six over 6 2/3 frames and Luis Castillo (8.6 K/9) got eight over six. Though the latter has seemingly turned a corner, neither he nor Keller has thrived to the level of Giolito in 2021.
Chicago’s right-hander enters play Friday with a 10.6 K/9 after striking out eight vs. the Astros and nine vs. the Orioles. Neither team is striking out against righties to the level Milwaukee has since the All-Star break, so the Brewers should go down by way of the K quite a bit when they face the starting pitcher with the fifth-best swinging strike rate in all of baseball on Friday.
One look at his 6.15 ERA and it might not surprise anyone to find out Happ has a tendency to give up a lot of hits. The Minnesota lefty has made 12 starts since May 12, and he’s given up six or more hits in all but two of those starts. Happ has logged some decent outings throughout that stretch, but opposing hitters always seem to get a piece of him. The last time he gave up fewer than six hits came on June 21 when the Reds got five off him in 4 2/3 innings — Happ also walked a season-high five batters that day, which is only the third time he’s walked three-plus in his 17 starts this season.
As for the Angels, they continue to be one of the toughest teams on left-handed pitchers this month. They’re fourth in ISO and fifth in OPS against lefties in July. If you just zoom in on those stats post-All-Star break, the Angels still find themselves in the top 10 in both categories.
The Giants are coming off a big series in Los Angeles, where they took three of four games from the team everyone expects to pass them in the NL West standings. Still hasn’t happened yet, and the Dodgers won’t make up much ground this weekend with San Francisco welcoming the Pirates to the Bay Area.
After an explosive series at Citi Field, Pittsburgh got swept by the Diamondbacks. Yes, that’s the same Arizona team currently sitting 32 games behind the squad Chad Kuhl will start against on Friday. While Kuhl has limited run production in his two July starts (one earned run in 11 innings), he walked five Mets hitters in five innings his last time out. Hard to imagine he’ll replicate that on Friday, but him placing an emphasis on being in the zone could lead to some mistakes — not something you want too much of when facing a Giants team that’s rocking the third-highest OPS and fifth-best ISO against right-handers this month.
Now, I’m not exactly high on Johnny Cueto, and the Pirates have hit righties well this month. But San Francisco’s bullpen has been rock solid in July. I expect Giants relievers to temper Pittsburgh’s offense while Pittsburgh’s struggling bullpen will continue to, well, struggle vs. San Francisco.
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