Hello, today is Wednesday and we only have eight games to look into. Will that make the research easier? Who knows, but we can at least talk about them.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lance McCullers Jr, $10,100, Houston Astros (-240) vs. Cleveland Indians (+195) — Some players have really struggled since June 21. Others, like McCullers, have thrived. Since that infamous date, he’s posted a McCullers has made four starts and has a .275 wOBA, a 1.84 FIP, a 12.0 K/9 and zero home runs allowed through 24 2/3 innings. One of those starts came against this Indians team where he allowed two runs on six hits and eight strikeouts through 5 1/3 innings. This Indians offense hasn’t been anything special as of late and in the month of July has a .310 wOBA with a .166 ISO and a 27.1% K%, which is the second-highest total in the league over that span.
While taking the Astros to win in this game is a steep line to consider, I do have a lot of interest in the -1.5 run line bet at -125. As favorites, the Astros are 37-41 (47.4%) on the run line. Doesn’t seem like a great number, right? As favorites, the best team are the White Sox at 44-33 (57.1%). This still puts the Astros in the top 10 (9th) even at 47.4%. As home favorites, the Astros are 21-23, once again ranking them in the top 10 (8th). Going against Eli Morgan ($5,700), who has made six starts and allowed at least three runs in all of them, I like my chances a lot better here at the -1.5 run line at a much more manageable number.
Highest Projected Total
Boston Red Sox (+165; 4.5 runs) at Toronto Blue Jays (-195; 5.5 runs) 10.5 runs — This game was rained out last night and while the Red Sox are sticking with Garrett Richards ($7,700), the Blue Jays will no longer use Tom Hatch and instead go with Robbie Ray ($9,900). Thus, the Blue Jays are sizable favorites in this game while the Red Sox team total drops from 5.5 to 4.5 for tonight. As mentioned yesterday, both teams sturggle to hit the over on the game total, at 44-48-3 for the Red Sox and 42-43-3 for the Blue Jays.
Richards has been a gas can for almost two months now and has openly admitted he struggles without the sticky stuff. The Blue Jays have already torched him for 10 runs on 22 hits and 12 walks through 16 2/3 innings this season. The over has been hitting at a rapid pace when Richards takes the mound this season and has gone 7-1 since the beginning of June. The problem now is, when Ray take the mound, the under on the game total dominates. The under is 12-6 (66%) when Ray takes the mound, which gives us a conflicting stats for this game. I think the play in this one is taking over 5.5 runs for the Blue Jays and fading the 10.5 game total.
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Weather Notes
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Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Eli Morgan, .387, 5.28
Kyle Hendricks, .374, 5.23
Logan Webb, .350, 3.88
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Robbie Ray, .225, 2.46
Dylan Cease, .276, 3.47
Lance McCullers Jr, .293, 3.77
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Eli Morgan, .434, 6.73
Jordan Lyles, .397, 6.06
Garrett Richards, .387, 4.77
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Logan Webb, .249, 2.58
Lance McCullers Jr, .257, 3.22
Julio Urias, .283, 3.51
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Lance McCullers Jr, Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Indians, $10,100 — Yup, I’m big on my BS picking the most expensive player on the board again. I hate it but it truly is the play tonight. As I mentioned above, the Indians have the second-highest K% in the league overall in the month of July at 27.1%. Now we have McCullers, who has a 12.0 K/9 since the June 21 crackdown. McCullers has introduced a slider this season and he’s thrown it 24% of the time, making it his secondary pitch behind his fastball (32.6%). It’s a big change off of his fastball, with an average of 7.9 mph difference in velocity. The Indians have hovered around league average against the slider and below league average against the fastball. With eight strikeouts against them earlier this month in 5 1⁄3 innings, McCullers feels like the right guy to use.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees, $5,300 — The Phillies let us down big time last night both from a daily fantasy and a betting standpoint. Nothing shows how mentally tough we can be by going right back to them tonight. Asher Wojciechowski ($4,000) is reportedly getting the start for the Yankees tonight and this pleases us. He was someone we loved to stack against when he was with the Orioles and for whatever reason, the Yankees decided to pick him up in 2021. Last year with the Orioles, Wojciechowski had a .392 wOBA with a 6.24 FIP and five of the 11 home runs he allowed to lefties.
Save Big by Drafting
Michael Brantley, Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles, $3,400 — I love the salary we’re getting for Brantley against Morgan. On this slate, Morgan has some of the worst numbers against both sides of the plate, specifically a a .387 wOBA and a 5.28 FIP against lefties. Both sides of the plate have been hitting Morgan hard so taking a look at the Astro as a stack would be highly recommended. In the case of Brantley, he’s simply too cheap to leave on the board while averaging 9.7 DKFP against righties and 11 DKFP since coming out of the All-Star break.
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