This week will be the third time TPC Twin Cities will host the 3M Open, and in the previous two installments, longshots have prevailed. Matthew Wolff was priced at $7,300 in 2019, with the average salary of the top six golfers in DraftKings scoring at $7,833. That year, two players were in the $6,000-range (Carlos Ortiz, Joey Garber). In 2020, much of the same transpired, with Michael Thompson being $7,000 and the average salary $7,550. Last season, four of the six players came from $7,000 and lower, and both years had one player in the $10,000 and above range.
Course history, current form or your favorite golf tout has pumped up the projected DraftKings ownership for individual golfers throughout the week. This article will look at the projected chalk and pivot in each significant salary range when entering lineups in DraftKings GPPs.
For a full course preview and who I like in the betting market, please refer to DraftKings Preview and the Best Bets articles on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the pivots we should be considering this week on DraftKings.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $800K Flop Shot [$200K to 1st]
$10,000+ Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Tony Finau ($10,700)
Pivot: Patrick Reed ($10,300)
Many factors are leading to Finau’s popularity this week. Firstly, he’s always popular. Secondly, he finished 15th at The Open Championship last week, and lastly, he’s played here both years, finishing 23rd in 2019 and third last season. All are valid reasons to play Finau, but pivoting to Reed could be the move if Finau goes back to his poor form leading into Royal St. George’s. Reed has posted two top 20s, a sixth at Wells Fargo and a top 5 at the Memorial Tournament. Approach and putting is the equation for success here, and by the looks of it, Reed has found something with his irons, ranking inside the top 10 in approach over the previous 24 rounds. His putting? He’s one of the best on TOUR, especially on bentgrass.
$8,000 to $10,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Emiliano Grillo ($9,300)
Pivot: Bubba Watson ($9,100)
In GPPs, Grillo was 18.5% rostered at Memorial and 16.8% rostered at the Rocket Mortgage; he missed the cut both times. This week, he’s projected to be around the same amount in roster percentage, and it’s worrisome when you’re eating this much risk at this price. Watson has made seven cuts in a row and finished sixth his last time out at the Rocket Mortgage, gaining 9.4 strokes Tee-to-Green, 5.3 of which were from his irons. No one has been better at racking up birdies than Watson over the past 24 rounds, and few have been better in par 5 scoring, ranking fourth over the same timeframe.
$7,000 to $8,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Hank Lebioda ($7,900)
Pivot: Pat Perez ($7,100)
“Lefty Lebs” is getting quite the buzz this week — he’s projected to be the highest-rostered player, according to FantasyNational.com. While his dreadful nickname is my fault, rostering him at 20-plus percent will be yours, especially with the volatility in this range. Perez isn’t the best talent compared to Lebioda or other guys near them, but it wouldn’t be surprising if we see him vault up the leaderboard on this resort-like course where birdies are a premium. After a top 10 at the Palmetto and a 14th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Perez looks to be in decent form when he makes the weekend; he has missed the cut twice in his last four starts. Perez has gained strokes with his irons in seven of his previous eight events and the same with his putter. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks seventh in birdies gained and third in par 5 scoring.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $800K Flop Shot [$200K to 1st]
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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