The 3M Open takes place this week in Minnesota at TPC Twin Cities. Sandwiched between the Open Championship and 2020 Tokyo Olympics, the field is surprisingly better than expected, with Dustin Johnson (+700), Louis Oosthuizen (+1100) and Tony Finau (+1400) playing this week.
This week will be the third year the course will play host, and we should expect scoring to be similar. The average winning score is 20-under, and the average winning odds is +15000, with Matthew Wolff winning at +17500 in 2019 and Michael Thompson winning last season at +12500.
In both years, Thompson and Wolff started behind the lead after Thursday’s round. Thompson was tied for the lead after Friday and Saturday’s rounds, while Wolff was chasing Friday and tied for the lead after Saturday’s round. Saving some of your bankroll for in-tournament selections could be a prudent strategy this week, especially with only two years at TPC Twin Cities under our proverbial belts.
Here are the bets we should be considering this week on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Not able to make the trip to the Open Championship last week, Watson should be fresh this week in Minnesota. Watson is playing some of his best golf, ranking fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green and 11th in SG: Approach-the-Green over his previous two tournaments. With two top 20s, a top 15 and a top 10 in his last six events, Watson is close to putting it all together, and this week could be the tournament he does.
Ghim’s range is very enticing, with Patton Kizzire (+6500), Jhonattan Vegas (+6000) and Hank Lebioda (+5000) all viable options to choose from this week. The reason Ghim gets the nod is the positive EV we’re getting on someone who has the ceiling game to win here. Ghim gained 7.7 strokes with his irons at the John Deere Classic, finishing 18th earlier this month. A hot week with his putting is necessary to win here, but an 18th at TPC Twin Cities last year, where he gained 2.1 strokes putting, should give him confidence on the greens, something he’s been lacking this season.
Over his previous 12 rounds, Hoag is fifth in opportunities gained and first with his irons. Bo is also 13th in birdies gained over the same timeframe, and 15th in greens in regulation gained. His putting has been mediocre of late, but his third-best putting performance was here back in 2020, gaining 4.1 strokes on the greens and finishing inside the top 12. Adam Schenk (+10000) should also be considered this week. As mentioned in the preview article, Schenk ranks fourth in birdies gained and inside the top 15 in both par 4 and par 5 scoring.
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