MLB Best Bets: Baseball Picks, Predictions, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for July 18

It’s Sunday, and that means we’ve got a jam-packed slate with plenty of games to choose from in the afternoon, and with so many valuable lines out there, it’s hard to pick just a few. With that said, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers

Tigers ML (+110)

Wily Peralta has really found something this year. The veteran right-hander is getting outs with his fastball, even though it’s dropped from 94 to 93 mph on average, and he’s allowed a career-best .283 xwOBA on contact (in the Statcast era, anyway). When hitters are connecting, it’s not going very far, and judging by higher strikeout numbers, they’re not even connecting with the same frequency.

I’m not in love with the idea of backing the Tigers against a lefty when their numbers point to a clear preference towards right-handed pitching, but J.A. Happ is an exception. The lefty has been horrendous this year with a 12.3% barrel rate and a .506 xSLG. Hitters are torching him at the moment, and even if you want to say a little regression will set in for Peralta, he’s still the far superior pitcher of the two and shouldn’t be priced as a home underdog.

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Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox

White Sox ML (-130)

A week ago, we talked about how bad things were for the Astros at the dish, and a week later not much has changed. Houston is still in the bottom half of the league when it comes to wRC+, having a hard time coming up with runs over the last bundle of games.

It seems insane to see a total this low considering the prowess of both teams against left-handed pitching for most of the season, but that’s how things are breaking for the Astros at the moment. Because of the poor offense, I have no choice but to take the banged up, yet still potent, White Sox. They have a 139 wRC+ over the last week and it doesn’t appear anything can stop them.

With the better of the two lefties (just barely), I do think the White Sox bats can prevail here as short home favorites against a team that’s been awful lately.

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Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Under 9 (-110)

I admittedly liked this when it was at plus money early in the morning, but it’s hard to deny that this number is just a little too high.

Despite pretty awful peripherals, Zach Davies has continued to shove start after start, and the lines on the Cubs in his starts have begun to reflect that. He’s giving up a lot of hard contact, but it’s going straight into the ground and right at the Cubs’ above-average infield defense. He shouldn’t be bothered by a Diamondbacks team that is starved for runs at the moment.

On the other side of the coin, Merrill Kelly has been perfectly average this season, and is probably Arizona’s top option in the rotation. The Cubs are also hurting offensively, and I think with two average-to-above average pitchers, we can get this to go under.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.