Home court has reigned supreme in this year’s NBA Finals as the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns are tied at two apiece heading into Game 5. The Bucks were 20-16 away from home during the regular season while the Suns were 27-9 at home. Both teams were top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency — Suns (4th OFF/9th DEF), Bucks (6th OFF/10th DEF). This series may hinge on the play of Chris Paul ($13,200 CP; 8,800) who has seen a decrease of DKFP in each game — 53.5, 40.5, 33, and 23. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Suns favored by 3.5 points with the O/U at 219.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $1M Finals Shootaround Special [$200K to 1st] (MIL vs PHO)
Captain’s Picks
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($18,900 CP) - To Giannis or not to Giannis? That is the question. Giannis has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate as he’s gone for 53.8, 71.5, 69.3 and 66.5 DKFP in the first four games. During the regular season, he averaged a ridiculous 1.6 DKFP per minute. The price tag is a hefty one, though. In addition, the paths are limited as to lineup construction with Giannis at CP. That said, he will likely put up the most raw points on the slate and literally stuffs the stat sheet every night.
Chris Paul ($13,200 CP) - As mentioned in the intro, Paul has seen a decrease in DKFP production in each game. The trend has not been a friend for Paul backers. All the talk has been on his costly turnovers and the defensive job that the Bucks have done on him, in particular Jrue Holiday ($14,400 CP; $9,600). That said, playoff series are all about adjustments and Paul is a wily vet. He’s still dishing out assists and attempting double-digit shots, although they have decreased from 20 to 13. I like Paul to bounce back in this one, as he’s had plenty of time to rest and stew on the last two games. In addition, recency bias should lower his ownership percentage and, with Paul in the CP slot, you can fit in Giannis or two other high-priced players.
UTIL Plays
Cameron Johnson ($4,000) - In the first two games of the series, Johnson played 21 and 18 minutes. In the last two, he’s received 30 and 29 minutes. Some of that is due to the Dario Saric injury, but he’s also been playing well and earned extra run. Johnson is primarily a 3-point specialist and averaged 0.76 DKFP per minute during the regular season, but minutes are half the battle, and the Bucks allow shots from downtown due to their defensive scheme. Johnson has scored double-digit DKFP in every game with two above 20.
Pat Connaughton ($4,800) - Johnson and Connaughton are similar players, as they both garner low usage rates and are primarily 3-point specialists. Connaughton averaged 0.73 DKFP per minute during the season and has scored double-digit DKFP in every game of the Finals with two above 20. Unlike Johnson, Connaughton has been a significant member of the rotation all series as he’s played 28, 34, 30 and 32 minutes. Minutes are half the battle. Yo, Joe!
Mikal Bridges ($6,800) - Bridges has played 26 and 27 minutes over the past two games and put up 15.8 and 9.5 DKFP. He attempted four shots in each game. In the first two games of the series, he played 38 and 30 minutes and went for 19.8 and 40.3 DKFP. He attempted 13 and 15 shot attempts. During the regular season, Bridges was actually more productive on the road, but two of his biggest games in these playoffs have come at home. It’s tough to get a gauge on Bridges because the usage rate is low, and there’s tons of variance to his game. Ownership should be decreased due to the lackluster production in the two most recent games. In addition, he’s right in the same range as Crowder who I think most people will flock to.
Fades
Jae Crowder ($11,100 CP; $7,400) - Crowder has gone for 33, 32 and 41.5 DKFP over the past three games. He shot 4-for-8 and 6-for-7 in two of those games and in the game in which he shot 3-for-10, he racked up three steals, three blocks, three assists and eight rebounds. On the season, he shot 40% from the field, so I never bank on efficiency from him. The most recent game in which he stuffed the stat sheet also looks to be an outlier. If looking at the game logs, it looks like Crowder is a consistent fantasy option, but he averaged 0.8 DKFP per minute during the season, and, more than likely, he will score in the teens. I like Crowder to come back down to earth and Bridges to bounce back which makes it an easy fade/pivot scenario.
THE OUTCOME
For full transparency, I’ve been absolutely horrible at predicting outcomes, so you may want to go Costanza on me. If that doesn’t work, then Costanza the Costanza.
The Suns were the best team at home all season and have been one of the most balanced teams in the NBA. I like them to bounce back and take care of business at home.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $1M Finals Shootaround Special [$200K to 1st] (MIL vs PHO)
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