Hey! Welcome back to the second-half of the MLB season. Trade rumors are swirling as the deadline approaches but we’re going to focus on a massive slate for Friday.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Robbie Ray, $9,300, Toronto Blue Jays (-250) vs. Texas Rangers,(+200) — Kicking off the second-half with the resurgent Robbie Ray as the biggest favorite on the board. He closed out the first-half with an unbelievable start against the Rays in which he threw seven shutout innings against the Rays, allowing just one hit and striking out 11. This will be his first time seeing the Rangers and quite frankly, if we’re going off their numbers against lefties, this could be another breeze of a start for our guy Ray. The Rangers have a .310 wOBA (21st) a .146 ISO (25th), 96 wRC+ (21st) and a 23.6% K% (11th). The Rangers also rank below league average against both the fastball and slider, the two primary pitches that Ray throws.
As favorites this season, the Blue Jays are 25-21 as favorites but only 13-14 as home favorites. I’m not taking too much into consideration for that though, as the Rangers as underdogs are one of the worst in the league at 29-48. It doesn’t get better when they’re on the road either at 13-29.
Highest Projected Total
Los Angeles Dodgers (-200; 6.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (+170; 4.5 runs) 11.5 runs — A massive total at Coors Field, which is heavily weighted by a 6.5 team total for the Dodgers. Neither team has been particularly strong with the over this season, however, as the Dodgers are 44-43-4 (50.6%) and the Rockies at 39-49-2 (44.3%), which is one of the worst in the league. At Coors Field specifically, the over is 21-25-2 (45.6%).
The Dodgers will be facing Antonio Senzatela ($5,800), who like most starters at Coors Field, oddly enough, have pitched much better here. HOWEVER, Senzatela has NOT done well against this Dodgers club in two prior starts. They’ve tagged him for 12 runs (11 earned) on 14 hits through just SIX innings. Both of these starts came in the beginning of April but the absolutely destroyed him in those games. His 10.33 FIP doesn’t exactly help matters either if you were hoping he was simply unlucky. Now to be fair, Senzatela has pitched MUCH better since the disaster of April and currently sports an overall 3.66 FIP at home. It’s impressive but far from an endorsement against a team that has crushed him twice already. On the road this season, the Dodgers average 5.1 runs per game, which is the fourth-best average in the league.
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Weather Notes
We have a ton of games with some sort of rain threat so I’ll list them below.
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Keegan Akin, .389, 4.29
Kyle Hendricks, .376, 5.23
Adrian Houser, .354, 4.45
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Robbie Ray, .233, 2.61
Kevin Gausman, .248, 2.81
Marcus Stroman, .252, 3.48
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Eli Morgan, .501, 8.38
Chris Paddack, .389, 4.39
Jordan Lyles, .379, 5.29
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kevin Gausman, .181, 2.34
Charlie Morton, .261, 3.19
Lance McCullers Jr, .264, 3.43
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Editor’s Note: Giants SP Kevin Gausman (personal) has been scratched from his start tonight vs. the Cardinals.
Kevin Gausman, San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals, $10,300 — I hate to take the most expensive pitcher on a given slate but if the man is the play, he’s the play, dammit. Gausman has been nearly un-hittable all season long and now faces the Cardinals for the second time. In that prior start, he threw seven innings allowing two runs on three hits and struck out eight, good for 24.8 DKFP. While the Cardinals are not usually a team to target against for strikeouts with a 22% K% (27th), they are a team to target against for everything else. Against righties, they have a .295 wOBA, a .149 ISO and a 87 wRC+. As for Gausman, he’s thrown some of his best games on the road, where he has a .233 wOBA and a 2.64 FIP.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks, $4,500 — Madison Bumgarner ($7,000) is set to make his return tonight and take the mound for the first time since June 3. It doesn’t look as if he’ll be on a strict pitch count, as he threw 4 1⁄3 innings in his last rehab start. This is good news for Baez, who has simply annihilated left-handed pitching. Entering this game, he boasts a .423 wOBA with a .344 ISO and a 169 wRC+. After what began as a very good month of May, Bumgarner resorted back to his old self and allowed 12 runs on 13 hits in his last two starts before being placed on the injured list. Pitching at home has not been a strength for the D-Backs starter, owning a .375 wOBA and a 4.36 FIP.
Save Big by Drafting
Eric Hosmer, San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals, $3,500 — When the Padres need someone to hit a ground ball, Hosmer is the guy. Here’s hoping he can get a ball to go high tonight in a good matchup against Erick Fedde ($7,700). His numbers against lefties is what caught my attention, as he has a .335 wOBA, a 4.61 FIP and four of the nine home runs he’s allowed. To Hosmer’s credit, the move down to the sixth spot in the lineup has helped a bit, as he currently sports a .411 wOBA with a .231 ISO and a 163 wRC+ in 12 games.
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