Saturday’s MLB slate is a large one, with 16 games to choose from. That includes eight games scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET or later, which is what this piece will focus on.
Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Royals ML (+106)
The Royals are shaping up to be a preferred target of the sharps. They’ve received just 29% of the moneyline bets, but those bets have accounted for 43% of the moneyline dollars. A discrepancy that large is typically an indicator that the big bets – which tend to come from professional bettors – are landing on the Royals.
The Royals will send Mike Minor to the mound tonight, and he’s pitched to a dreadful 5.36 ERA this season. That said, his advanced metrics suggest he’s due for some positive regression. His xERA and FIP are both more than a full run lower than his traditional ERA. Cleveland also ranks just 29th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers, so this is an elite matchup for Minor, as well.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets (Game 2)
Mets -1.5 (+115)
The Mets and Pirates are playing a doubleheader on Saturday, and I like them on the run line in Game 2. Tylor Megill is still a relative unknown at the MLB level, but he has been extremely impressive in his first three starts. He’s averaged 11.93 strikeouts per nine innings and posted a 2.01 xERA, which bodes well for him in this matchup. The Pirates’ offense is one of the worst in baseball, ranking 28th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers.
The Mets’ offense should also be able to do some damage. They’re essentially back at full strength, and they exploded for 13 runs in the first game of this series on Friday. Max Kranick will be making just his second major league start, but he pitched to a 6.04 ERA in five starts in Triple-A earlier this season. He’s currently ranked as just the No. 35 prospect in the organization per FanGraphs, so he doesn’t profile as a long-term major league starter.
Gerrit Cole under 6.5 strikeouts (-125)
Cole was off to another fantastic start this season, but the MLB’s crackdown on the “sticky stuff” appears to have changed everything. He’s recorded six strikeouts or fewer in four straight games, and he pitched at least seven innings in two of those contests.
Cole blossomed into arguably the best strikeout pitcher in baseball after arriving in Houston in 2018, but it’s fair to question if he’s still the same pitcher. His strikeout numbers in Pittsburgh were far more modest – he posted a K/9 of 9.0 or less in each of his first five seasons – and it seems as though that might be a truer indicator of his strikeout potential sans grip enhancers.
Things are going to be particularly challenging for him vs. the Astros. They own the lowest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitchers, whiffing in just 19.3% of their at bats. I’m all over the under.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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