Hello it’s the first day of July. Weather is hot. People are ready for the holiday, but I’m getting you ready for baseball tonight. Great guy, I know.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Corbin Burnes, $9,200, Milwaukee Brewers (-250) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+210) — For as dominant as Burnes has been this season, the Pirates were one of those teams that got the best of him earlier this season. A few weeks ago, they somehow tagged him for four runs (three earned) on nine (!) hits in four innings. In typical Burnes fashion, he did strikeout eight in the process. The interesting point to be made here though, is that the advanced numbers show he was flat out unlucky here. While he ended with a 6.75 ERA, his FIP was just 1.41. I bring this up because it’s been a common theme for him as of late. His 3.22 ERA in the month of June was his highest of the season but his FIP was only 1.19, which was his second-lowest of the season.
I have no problem with using Burnes in all fashions tonight. As mentioned, while he’s getting unlucky, he’s been pitching as well as he has all season long. His strikeout upside remains so incredibly high with a 34.7% K%. The Pirates are one of the toughest teams to strikeout with just a 21.7% K% against righties but as mentioned, Burnes already struck out eight in four innings, which equals out to an 18.0 K/9. In starts that Burnes has made, the Brewers are only 6-7 but 4-1 during the month of June.
Other notable favorite: Framber Valdez ($9,800; -180) vs. Cleveland Indians
Highest Projected Total
St. Louis Cardinals (-124; 5.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (+107; 4.5 runs) 11 runs — We have a series at Coors Field AND the return of Nolan Arenado ($5,500) as a Cardinal. The Rockies are 34-41-2 with the over but 21-21-2 at home. The Cardinals sit at 38-37-5 but a very good 22-16-2 on the road.
Like most Rockies pitchers, Antonio Senzatela ($5,100) has pitched better at Coors Field than he has on the road. Makes zero sense but whatever. The Cardinals haven’t been an offensive force on the road, averaging just 4.0 runs per game in that scenario, but they should be able to handle this matchup. The Rockies bullpen at home has also been atrocious at Coors Field (as it should). When throwing at Coors, these relievers have the highest FIP in the league at 4.97 to go with a .354 wOBA and a 1.4 HR/9. I have no issue rolling with the Cardinals team total at 5.5.
St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies - Most likely a delayed start but nothing more.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
JC Mejia, .374, 4.45
Johnny Cueto, .353, 4.30
Antonio Senzatela, .336, 3.48
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jacob deGrom, .175, 1.83
Ryan Weathers, .228, 2.33
Patrick Corbin, .246, 1.77
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Wil Crowe, .420, 6.80
Patrick Corbin, .366, 5.89
Antonio Senzatela, .360, 4.89
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jacob deGrom, .143, 0.21
JC Mejia, .201, 2.16
Corbin Burnes .207, 1.20
Pitcher to Build Around
Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers $8,100 — Yes, Jacob deGrom ($11,500) is on the slate and you should play him. You don’t need me to tell you that. I do like Corbin tonight, as long as the weather cooperates. The Dodgers continue to limp along offensively and are averaging just 3.8 runs over their last 10 games. Against lefties, the numbers aren’t very impressive either. Against them, they have a .301 wOBA (23rd) .165 ISO (15th) 93 wRC+ (21st). The cherry on top is how much they strikeout as well with a 24.6% K%, which ranks 10th in the league.
Does anyone ever feel great about using Corbin? Hell no. But, I think taking advantage of this matchup at just $8,100 is the key point. Corbin finished the month of June with a solid .277 wOBA, a 3.88 FIP and a 21.4% K%, which was his highest of the season.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates $5,000 — I think we’re kinda, sorta seeing Yelich break out of his season-long slump. He’s averaging 9.7 DKFP over his last 10 games but more specifically, 12 DKFP over his last five. Tonight, he gets a really good matchup against Wil Crowe ($5,600), who has some really, really bad numbers against lefties. They include some of the worst on this slate with a .322 wOBA and a 5.43 FIP, which is the highest mark amongst all the pitchers tonight. With the way Yelich is hitting the ball lately, I absolutely want him at my lineup, as his salary should continue to climb.
Save Big by Drafting
Josh Rojas, Arizona Diamondbacks vs.San Francisco Giants, $3,600 — The Diamondbacks do nothing for me, like at all. I took them to score over 3.5 runs against the human gas can in Carlos Martinez and they couldn’t even do that. So good luck every getting a bet from me again you cowards! I will however, use Rojas, who has been one of the lone bright spots for them lately. He faces Johnny Cueto ($7,300) and his less than stellar numbers against lefties. Cueto has a .353 wOBA, 4.30 FIP and four of the eight home runs allowed against them. Rojas just wrapped up the month of June with a .190 ISO and can slot into either second base or outfield in your lineup.
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