Game 1 of the Western Conference series between the third-seeded Denver Nuggets and second-seed Phoenix Suns is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET on Monday. The Nuggets were 22-14 on the road during the regular season and won two of three games in Portland in the first round of the playoffs, while the Suns were 27-9 at home during the regular season and won two of three games in Phoenix in the first round. The Nuggets won the head-to-head regular-season series 2-1, with two of those games going to overtime. Keep in mind Jamal Murray played in all three of those games and Devin Booker missed one. The Nuggets were 26th in pace and 14th in defensive efficiency during the year while the Suns were 26th in pace and 9th in defensive efficiency. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Suns favored by five points Monday with the O/U at 221.5.
Captain’s Picks
Nikola Jokic ($18,600 CP) - The price is tough to swallow and he’s $3,600 more expensive than the next-highest player, but his floor-ceiling combo is unmatched in this game. Jokic averaged a ridiculous 1.6 DKFP per minute during the regular season. He’s a threat to log a triple-double on any given night and will chip in defensive stats from time to time. In Denver’s first-round series vs. the Trail Blazers, he went for at least 55 DKFP in five of six games, with a high of 77.25. Jokic’s usage rate was over 35% in five of six games, as well. In three regular season meetings vs. the Suns, Jokic put up 49.25, 62 and 66 DKFP. In the 49.25-DKFP game, he only played 30 minutes. The other two games were overtime affairs, and he played 40 and 42 minutes. He averaged 35.2 minutes per game in the series vs. Portland.
Devin Booker ($15,000 CP) - Booker is a professional getter of buckets. His bag is so deep, and he can put up a 50-burger on any given night. That said, because he primarily scores from the perimeter, his shooting efficiency can be rough. In addition, his contributions in the other categories are lacking at times, especially in the defensive ones. So, the floor is much lower than Jokic, but the ceiling is in the same stratosphere. In the closeout game vs. the Lakers, he scored 47 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, translating to 71.25 DKFP. In two regular season meetings with the Nuggets, he went for 25 and 47.75 DKFP. Deciding whether to utilize Booker or not will likely be an important part of this slate, factoring in ownership percentages. If he goes bonkers, then those who don’t roster him will be toast. It’s well within the range of outcomes that he scores in the 30-40 DKFP range, though, so those who roster a cheaper player who matches or exceeds that production will be way ahead in that scenario.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (DEN vs PHO)
UTIL Plays
Mikal Bridges ($5,400) - Bridges is a low-usage player (14%), so the points will rarely flow for him. He does play over 30 minutes per game, though, and contributes a little something in every category. During the regular season, Bridges averaged 0.8 DKFP per minute, so he will likely score in the 20-DKFP range. He did go over 30 DKFP 25 times, with six of those being for over 40 and a high of 51, so there is access to a good ceiling if things break right. In the three regular season games vs. the Nuggets, Bridges went for 22.25, 51 and 22.25 DKFP.
Monte Morris ($6,400) - Morris missed a ton of time toward the end of the regular season, so it’s taken him some time to get back into the groove. In addition, he has been coming off the bench while Facundo Campazzo ($7,000) has been starting. Since Jamal Murray went down, Morris had scored over 30 DKFP just once, until the last two games in the Portland series — he went for 43.25 and 47.5 DKFP while playing 41 and 33 minutes, respectively. His usage rate was 25% in both games, and while he provided assists and rarely turned the ball over, he’s had at least one steal in each of the last five games and racked up a total of eight. I will happily take the $600 discount from Campazzo and hope the recent trend of playing time and usage continues for Morris.
Aaron Gordon ($6,600) - Gordon is such a conundrum because he has the offensive skill set to be a star and the athleticism to be a maven on defense. Yet, he is so far from a star and often contributes very little in the defensive categories. That said, there is upside if he can put it all together. He has the ability to grab a ton of rebounds and is an adept passer. Playing alongside Jokic will afford him plenty of open looks. He just needs to rack up those steals and blocks. In the two most recent games, Gordon put up 32.25 and 35.5 DKFP, playing 33 and 39 minutes, respectively. His floor is 20 DKFP, and he only attempted more than 10 shots in two of the games in the Portland series. The good thing in this matchup is that the Suns boost the FPPM of power forwards by 6.68 percentage points above league average.
Fades
Michael Porter Jr. ($12,600 CP; $8,400) - Porter is coming off two monster games, going for 42.75 and 51 DKFP. He is so skilled and can score efficiently, so there’s a good chance I look foolish with his fade. That said, there is some inconsistency to his game. In the other four games in the Portland series, he went for 8.75, 24.75, 29.5 and 39.75 DKFP. The Suns are a very good defensive team and negated the FPPM of small forwards by 9.89 percentage point below league average during the regular season.
THE OUTCOME
For full transparency, I’ve been absolutely horrible at predicting outcomes, so you may want to go Costanza on me. If that doesn’t work, then Costanza the Costanza.
The Suns are so tough at home and play excellent defense. Phoenix’s offense is really humming, as well. They eviscerated a Lakers team that didn’t have Anthony Davis but was still one of the top-rated defensive teams. Is this the year of destiny for the Suns as they now get to face another team without one of their stars? Could be. I like the Suns to rise up and take Game 1.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $300K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st] (DEN vs PHO)
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