We went 2-1 on article plays last week (I hold you responsible, the Athletics). For the season, we now stand at a pretty impressive 23-12, which basically means we’ve had about as much success hitting MLB bets in 2021 as Giannis Antetokounmpo has had hitting free throws. I’d rather be Stephen Curry, but, well, the world isn’t perfect.
Here are my three favorite bets for tonight’s slate on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
White Sox ML (-134)
While I can certainly appreciate that the White Sox haven’t been playing their best baseball the past couple of weeks, this line feels a little disrespectful. Chicago has the third-best run differential in the American League, it’s posted at 29-14 record when playing at home and, crucially, it leads Minnesota by 12.5 games in the Central Division.
Tonight’s pitching matchup is also pretty one-sided. While Bailey Ober continues to survive at the major league level — a 4.64 ERA and a 4.22 xERA are nothing special — it feels like the White Sox have the type of lineup that could cause the young RHP issues, specifically in the sense that Chicago has several left-handed bats at its disposal. The 43 LHBs that Ober has faced this season have combined to slash a ridiculous .436/.488/.769. Meanwhile, Dylan Cease has pitched to a 1.63 ERA at Guaranteed Rate Field, a setting where he’s held opponents to a modest .254 wOBA. The White Sox have also gone 9-3 in Cease’s past 12 trips to the mound.
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New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Team Total: Mets Under 3.5 Runs (+114)
Despite getting healthier over the past couple of weeks, the Mets just can’t seem to hit. Across the past 14 days, New York owns a 74 wRC+ and a .268 wOBA — both the third-lowest marks in all of baseball. It’s not like things will get any easier tonight, either, as the Braves will welcome back Max Fried from the IL. For the season as a whole, the Mets are hitting just .222 with a .142 ISO against left-handed pitching. It’s all pretty underwhelming.
Fried shouldn’t have any limitations, as he missed just one start due to a blister issue, and the 27-year-old had been pitching lights out prior to the ailment. In fact, going back to the beginning of May, Fried has posted a 2.51 ERA over eight outings, all while he’s held opponents to a .260 wOBA. The biggest reason for his success? Hard contact suppression. There’s been 113 pitchers to throw at least 40.0 innings the past two months and Fried’s hard hit rate of 28.6% is the third-lowest of the group. He might be allowing a few more batted ball events than he has in the past, but rarely are those BBE’s squared up.
Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Steven Matz Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-121)
This is going to be a sweat, but I think we get there. Really, the only issue tonight with Matz is volume uncertainty. We know he hasn’t started a game since Jun. 12, we know he threw a 60-pitch live bullpen last Thursday and we know that he’ll have his pitches capped in his return to the mound this evening. I’m thinking we get five innings and around 80 pitches. That’ll be enough against the Mariners.
Seattle comes into this game sporting the American League’s highest strikeout rate across the past 14 days (27.9%). It also owns baseball’s third-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching (27.7%) — the direct result of the Mariners having accumulated the second-most left-on-left plate appearances so far this season (423). Matz has struck out 33.3% of the 75 LHBs he’s faced in 2021. With Seattle likely to populate their lineup with four or five lefties on Wednesday, I’m willing to trust the 30-year-old.
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