Regardless how your lineups did last night, no one did worse than Carlos Martinez against the Dodgers. Remember that.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lance Lynn, $9,700, Chicago White Sox (-210) vs. Detroit Tigers (+175)— It’s another night of picking on the ol’ Tigers, as Lynn will make his first start of the season against them. He’s been a hell of a pickup for the White Sox, as the team is 7-2 on the moneyline in his starts. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his starts and has struck out at least six in six of those starts. Now he faces a Tigers team with a .297 wOBA, a .144 ISO an 89 wRC+ and a 27.1% K%, which is the second-highest in the league against righties.
All of the advanced numbers check out for Lynn as well, as his 2.87 FIP and only a 22.6% hard-hit rate allowed are extremely impressive. It’s honestly hard to find a blemish on his season up to this point. Going up against one of the top teams to target for strikeouts with a pitcher inducing a solid 12.5% swing-and-miss rate is going to be hard to pass up, even with the extremely heavy juice.
Other notable favorite: Yu Darvish ($10,700; -180) vs. New York Mets
Highest Projected Total
Minnesota Twins (+110; 4.5 runs) at Kansas City Royals (-130; 4.5 runs) 9 runs — Being an underdog hasn’t happened much for the Twins but when it does, they usually don’t pull through, going 5-9 in these scenarios. The Royals are 13-8 as favorites and will look to make it 14-8 by sending Kris Bubic ($6,900) to take on J.A. Happ ($7,000). The Twins remain the top team in the league hitting the over at 35-18-2, covering 66% of the time. The Royals are 25-25-3 with the over.
While you’re likely not using Bubic against a strong team against lefties in the Twins, the Royals against Happ is certainly intriguing. He’s really been hit hard lately and even in his last start against the Royals where he allowed two runs on three hits through five innings, his 4.93 FIP overshadowed his 3.60 ERA in that game. In the month of May, Happ ended with a .402 wOBA, a 4.21 FIP and a 38.2% hard-hit rate. He doesn’t usually generate many strikeouts, so relying on contact can get dicey against some of these teams that put the ball in play against lefties. While the Royals don’t have strong numbers against lefties, they don’t strikeout much. Happ also isn’t going deep into games, as he went no deeper than the 5 1⁄3 innings in all but one of his five starts in May. This opens the door for the Twins bullpen to enter, which has been one of the worst in the league. In starts made by Happ, the Twins have allowed an average of 6.1 runs.
Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates- This has a very legitimate chance of not taking place due to rain. I would cross this one off your list of game to choose from but as always, check again closer to first pitch.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Justus Sheffield, .359, 4.80
Griffin Canning, .334, 5.09
Casey Mize, .328, 5.34
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Lance Lynn, .217, 2.90
Tyler Anderson, .239, 3.65
Taijuan Walker, .240, 3.04
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Griffin Canning, .383, 5.75
Zach Davies, .365, 4.69
J.A. Happ, .351, 4.43
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Taijuan Walker, .198, 2.33
Anthony DeSclafani, .226, 3.08
Lance Lynn, .237, 2.83
Pitcher to Build Around
Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers, $9,700 — We’ve talked about Lynn already but the pricing is this slate is so odd, which makes me like Lynn even more. There is no reason why he’s only the fourth-most expensive pitcher on this slate. On what planet should Adam Wainwright ($9,800) be more expensive than Lynn? Or even Taijuan Walker ($10,300)? Granted, both pitchers have done well but consistency is certainly not on their resume. I will happily take the discount on Lynn against a team that should provide plenty of strikeout upside.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers, $5,400 — Staying in this game, I really like using Moncada against Casey Mize ($6,700). While overall Mize has been pitching extremely well, his struggles against lefties have been prominent. On the season, Mize has been tagged with a .328 wOBA, a 5.34 FIP and four of the seven home runs he’s allowed on the season. It’s been the one blemish on what’s been a really good season for him. While Moncada hasn’t been hitting for a ton of power thus far, his .394 wOBA and 157 wRC+ against righties is keeping him very fantasy relevant.
Save Big by Drafting
Kyle Garlick, Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, $2,800 — Garlick has found himself atop the Twins lineup more often than not as of late. At $2,800, getting a hitter in the leadoff spot is always a steal. When you add in the fact that he’s hitting lefties, well, that’s just the cherry on top. Garlick has posted. .393 wOBA with a .360 ISO and a 155 wRC+ against lefties in 52 plate appearances. Almost all of his extra base hits have come against lefties so this is a matchup I want to target. He doesn’t have to do much to return value on this minuscule salary.
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