Tuesday’s MLB slate is a large one, with 15 games to choose from.
Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Braves -1.5 (+120)
The Mets have been in a bit of a tailspin recently, losing nine of their last 14 games. They still own a three-game lead in the NL East, but they’re in a tough spot against the Braves on Tuesday. They’re taking on Charlie Morton, who has thoroughly dominated the Mets in two starts this season. He’s pitched 13 innings and allowed just one earned run. He’s also surrendered just three total hits over those innings while racking up 19 strikeouts.
Morton’s success vs. the Mets is hardly a surprise. They’ve been dreadful offensively for most of the year, but their biggest issue has come against one specific pitch: The curveball. They’ve provided the second-worst value against that pitch in the league this season, and no starter has leaned on his curveball more than Morton. He’s thrown the pitch a whopping 35% of the time, which is the highest mark among qualified starters.
The Mets will also have a relatively unknown starter on the mound in Tylor Megill. He’ll be making just his second start at the MLB level, and he pitched to a 5.68 FIP in his first outing. The Braves are sizable favorites, but this line should be even higher. I’m willing to lay the -1.5 runs for better odds, but the moneyline is underpriced, as well.
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Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals
Diamondbacks ML (+132)
The Diamondbacks' struggles on the road have been well documented this season. They lost a record 24-straight road contests, but they finally snapped that streak with a blowout win over the Padres on Saturday. They weren’t able to build on that success on either Sunday or Monday, but I like their chances for another victory tonight.
They’re taking on right-hander Carlos Martinez, who has been nothing short of a disaster this season. He’s pitched to a dreadful 6.78 ERA through 14 starts, and his advanced numbers suggest he hasn’t been particularly unlucky. His K/9 is down to a career-low 6.04, and he’s also walking 4.07 batters per nine innings.
On the other side, the Diamondbacks will have arguably their best pitcher on the mound. Caleb Smith has pitched to a 3.03 ERA and 10.16 K/9 this season, including a 3.38 ERA as a starter. I like their odds as a moderate underdog.
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San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers ML (-155)
The team with the best record in baseball will be on the field in Los Angeles on Tuesday, but it’s not the team everyone expected at the beginning of the year. The Giants have come seemingly out of nowhere, winning 50 of their first 78 games, but their lead over the Dodgers is shrinking. They’re currently just 2.5 games ahead of Los Angeles in the standings, so the Dodgers could cut the deficit nearly in half with a victory on Tuesday.
Both of these teams will be sending elite starting pitchers to the mound. Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the Giants, and his success has been just as surprising as his team’s. He put together a lackluster career with the Orioles, but he showed improvement in 2020 with the Giants. Now, he’s blossomed into one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s pitched to a 1.49 ERA and 2.39 FIP, and he would arguably be the NL Cy Young frontrunner if not for the sheer dominance of Jacob deGrom.
Unfortunately, he’s going to face a stiff test vs. the Dodgers. They rank second in the league in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, and there’s reason to believe they can improve moving forward. They’ve barely had Cody Bellinger in the lineup this season, and guys like Mookie Betts and Corey Seager have also missed time. This team ranked first in the league in wRC+ vs. right-handers last year, so it’s possible that Gausman could be less effective than usual.
The Dodgers will hand the ball to Walker Buehler, who has had a very good season in his own right. The Giants’ offense is also excellent against right-handed pitchers, but it’s a clear notch below the Dodgers. Plus, they're currently missing their best offensive weapon in Brandon Belt. Belt has posted a 142 wRC+ this season, so his absence is a big deal. Mike Yastrzemski’s status is also unknown after exiting Monday’s game early.
The Giants are definitely for real, but the Dodgers are simply too good when healthy.
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