Everybodyyyyyyy is in action tonight. So we have a lot to talk about. End of this pointless intro.
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Editor’s Note: Padres SP Blake Snell (illness) has been scratched from tonight’s game vs. the Reds.
DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Robbie Ray, $10,500, Toronto Blue Jays (-220) vs. Seattle Mariners (+185) — This is a big day, folks. Through all his grunts, groans and tight pants, Robbie freakin Ray is the biggest favorite on this slate. Huge day for the Jays and Ray. They took this misfit person and turned him into a pitcher. On the season, the Blue Jays are 10-11 as home favorites while the Mariners are 16-22 as road underdogs.
The matchup for Ray is a really good one, as the Mariners are statistically one of the worst offenses in the league against lefties. They have just a .292 wOBA, a .163 ISO, an 88 wRC+ and a 27.7% K%, the third-highest total in the league. The Mariners also are not a good hitting team against the fastball, ranking 26th but are league average against the slider at 16th. Either way, this is a great spot for Ray to rack up some strikeouts and potentially be in line for his sixth win of the season. The only issue here is that even with him pitching well, that hasn’t meant that Jays win when he takes the mound. Overall, the Jays are just 7-7 when he takes the mound. To that end, you could take the Blue Jays moneyline through the 1st 5 innings, which is a bit cheaper at -215.
Other notable favorite: Nick Pivetta ($9,000; -200) vs. Kansas City Royals
Highest Projected Total
Pittsburgh Pirates (+155; 4.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (-180; 5.5 runs) 11 runs — Let me tell you something, I don’t think I would go out of my way to back a heavy favorite Rockies team, even if they’re facing the Pirates. However, the numbers do favor the Rockies in this spot, who are an impressive 11-3 as home favorites but my goodness, does backing them feel dirty. The Pirates, naturally, are horrible as road underdogs, going 13-27.
Going in the Rockies favor will be German Marquez ($7,700) who has somehow pitched well at home through the first three months of the season. When he’s at Coors Field, he’s posted a a .276 wOBA, a 3.16 FIP with only two of the seven home runs he’s allowed. I don’t know why this has happened over a span of 55 2/3 innings but it has. The Pirates are not really an offense to fear but we all know Coors Field can do magical things to hitters when they have a bat in their hands here. I would be a bit iffy on taking the over on this game as we continue to see an impressive Marquez at home. The over at Coors Field is now 21-19-2 while the Pirates are only 16-20-4 with the over on the road.
A couple of games have some spotty showers but doesn’t look like anything major. I’ll list those games below but as of this morning, no reason to fade them.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Mike Foltynewicz, .433, 7.44
Jameson Taillon, .375, 5.65
JC Mejia, .375, 4.44
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Brandon Woodruff, .197, 2.27
Jose Urquidy, .222, 2.79
Kevin Gausman, .224, 2.36
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Brad Keller, .396, 5.73
Blake Snell, .373, 5.30
Kenta Maeda, .370, 4.87
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Kevin Gausman, .184, 2.43
JC Mejia, .201, 2.15
Brandon Woodruff, .219, 3.36
Pitcher to Build Around
Kevin Gausman, San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, $9,600 — Gausman has simply been untouchable. He’s allowed two runs or less in all but one of his starts this season and his numbers across the board have been spectacular. Gausman has a 1.49 ERA, which is backed up by a 2.39 FIP. HIs 10.4 K/9 and a 0.65 HR/9 have contributed to his success while also limiting hard contact. The Dodgers have been an offense you can pick on lately and they’ve been striking out a lot with a 25.2% K% over the past week. Gausman faced this team once already and shut them out through six innings, allowing just two hits and whiffing seven, good for 30.3 DKFP.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Jared Walsh, Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, $4,400 — Walsh isn’t all that expensive ahead of a great matchup against Jameson Taillon ($7,400). When facing lefties, Taillon’s numbers continue to struggle, posting a .375 wOBA, a 5.65 FIP and seven of the 11 home runs he’s allowed. Taillon is having a very tough month of June overall as well, allowing 10 runs on 20 hits through 16 2⁄3 innings. As for Walsh, he’s seen huge power on the road against righties with a .315 ISO and a .449 wOBA. I love getting him at this price as just over a week ago he was in the mid-$5K range.
Save Big by Drafting
David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals, $2,100 — I don’t know why Peralta is only $100 off the minimum in salary but I’ll grab those savings all day. Peralta isn’t lighting the offense world on fire but for someone that should be batting cleanup against Carlos Martinez ($7,000), I’m not going to complain. He’s been having a horrific month of June, allowing 30 (!) runs on 31 hits through 19 2⁄3 innings. Over that span, lefties have tagged him for a .426 wOBA, a 7.04 FIP and three home runs. It won’t take much for Peralta to pay off this salary, so I’m absolutely grabbing him for one of my outfield spots.
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