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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for June 25

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

26 teams will be in action on this 7:07 p.m. ET slate tonight that features some weather concerns and a boatload of potential stacking options. Let’s stop reading this pointless intro and talk about tonight.

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Editor’s Note: Tonight’s Astros-Tigers game has been postponed due to inclement weather.

DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chris Paddack, $8,800, San Diego Padres (-305) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+250) — It’s hard to not bet against the Diamondbacks team at this point. After “snapping” the 17-game losing streak they were on, they’ve gone onto lose the next two straight. They also let Dan Vogelbach score, while injured, with the ball in the infield the other night. Did you catch that? I have the shocking footage for you here. Now they’re massive road underdogs, a scenario they’ve gone 9-29 on the moneyline and 16-22 on the run line. As home favorites, the Padres are 26-11 and 20-17 on the run line.

Chris Paddack ($8,800) will be making his third start against the D-Backs this season and surprisingly has been roughed up by them. In 9 1/3 innings, Paddack has allowed eight runs (five earned) on 10 hits while striking out eight. It’s worth saying that it’s been a minute since he faced them last, as you have to go back to April 27th for the last matchup. Since that start, coincidentally, that’s when Paddack started to turn his season around. After that, he’s posted a an overall .302 wOBA, a 3.23 FIP and a 10.3 K/9. Against a team that has some of the worst offensive numbers in the league in the month of June, I think we see a much different outcome this time around.

Other notable favorite: Framber Valdez ($10,200; -265) vs. Detroit Tigers

Highest Projected Total

Baltimore Orioles (+205; 4.5 runs) at Toronto Blue Jays (-245; 6.5 runs) 10.5 runs — We have THREE games tonight with an overall total of 10.5 runs, the others being the Yankees-Red Sox and Braves-Reds. You can jump on my Odds Boost over on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Yankees-Red Sox game where you can get the over at 8.5 runs and the Red Sox moneyline at +230. As for this game, the Jays nearly hit the over on their own last night, scoring nine runs while shutting out the Orioles. The under 10.5 ended up hitting but the Jays simply crushed this pitching staff while collecting 10 hits. On the season, the O’s are are 37-36-2 with the over and the Jays at 33-38-2.

The obvious appeal here is the Jays going against Matt Harvey ($5,200) who just got croaked by the Jays his last time out. He was tagged for four runs on nine hits through just 4 1/3 innings, making this his third straight appearance of allowing at least four runs. The month of June has been horrific for Harvey, who has a .447 wOBA, a 5.71 FIP, only a 7.2 K/9 and a 35.7% hard-hit rate allowed. It’s always scary to take the over on a massive total like 6.5 runs but man, would you really consider the under? I couldn’t.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st

Weather Notes

Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds - Rain is in the forecast but exactly how much (or little) is the question here. As of this morning, this game is dicey so it’ll need another check closer to first pitch.

Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers - We could see a delay midway through the game, which could cause a disruption if you’re rostering Framber Valdez. Again, I would take a look at this one closer to first pitch and hopefully we’ll have a better idea of the timing.

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals - Looking as if this is going to be the biggest concern on the slate. It’s looking unlikely that this game will play.

Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Drew Smyly, .375, 6.15
Johnny Cueto, .368, 4.29
Jake Arrieta, .368, 5.90

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Carlos Rodon, .165, 0.70
Sean Manaea, .184, 2.78
Yusei Kikuchi, .196, 3.78

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Matt Harvey, .413, 4.21
Wil Crowe, .408, 6.47
Jon Lester, .376, 5.39

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Carlos Rodon, .238, 2.73
Framber Valdez, .247, 3.82
Alek Manoah, .264, 4.65

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners, $10,700 —Despite 26 pitchers on the board, we don’t have a ton with much strikeout upside. This makes Rodon stick out even more, despite being the most expensive at $10,700. He’s facing the Mariners, who still plan on winning the AL West, but have a 27.9% K% against lefties on the season. Facing lefties has not exactly gone well for them and they could use some help in this department. They own just a .286 wOBA, a .161 ISO and an 85 wRC+ in these matchups.

Rodon has already shown what he can do against this club, striking out nine through five shutout innings earlier this season. I feel as if Rodon is going to be quite popular, even on the big slate but I think it’s the right move. He hasn’t allowed more than a run in three starts during the month of June while striking out 25 in 19 innings.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees, $5,300 — Raffy continues to post some really solid numbers at Fenway against righties and that’s exactly what he gets tonight. He currently owns a .371 wOBA with a .238 ISO and a 133 wRC+ in these matchups. He’ll be facing off against Domingo German ($8,900), who is struggling to keep the ball in the park and only has a 19% K% against lefties. They’ve tagged him for a .323 wOBA and a 4.93 FIP with a 43.4% hard-hit rate! I think this is a great spot to target Devers in what should be a high scoring game.

Don’t forget to take advantage of my Odds Boost over on DraftKings Sportsbook for this game! Red Sox moneyline & game total o8.5 runs +230

Save Big by Drafting

Adam Duvall, Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals, $3,600 — Looking for some cheap power on this slate and Duvall is a great option for that. Jon Lester ($6,700) is suddenly struggling with the home run ball and has allowed one in four straight starts. Now he has to deal with Duvall, who has a .315 ISO in the month of June to go with a .335 wOBA and a 117 wRC+. 12 of the 16 home runs that Duvall has have come against righties and he’s nearly hit half of his season total this month. For a cheap bat, Duvall is either going to put up a donut or quickly give you double-digit fantasy points.

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