It’s Thursday, and that not only means the weekend is around the corner, it means we’ve got plenty of baseball on the docket. I’ve taken a look at the entire card and I think I’ve picked out three winners.
Here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
For how memeable the Baltimore Orioles have played this year, one thing that’s no joke is their performance against left-handers. The O’s own the league’s third-best wRC+ against southpaws at 114, which speaks to the quality of right-handed bats Trey Mancini and Austin Hays and also the reverse splits of Cedric Mullins, who has been able to hit just about any kind of pitcher he’s faced.
They’ll not only get a lefty, but a pretty awful one in former Mets prospect Anthony Kay. He will be called upon for a spot start here after posting a 9.95 ERA in three starts at Triple-A, which is only marginally worse than the 5.79 ERA he owns at the big league level over the last three seasons. He seemed to completely lose everything when he left the Mets, and I don’t expect it to magically come back here against Baltimore.
Dean Kremer has been just as bad and will have his hands full with the Blue Jays, but this game feels closer to a coin flip for me with how much success both offenses should have. With that, you have to take +170 odds.
It makes me sad to fade Cody Poteet; I think he’s got some real talent and can be good in this league. With that being said, the matchup here couldn’t be worse, and it also looks pretty bad for his counterpart Joe Ross.
To get the first part out of the way, the Nationals are 11th in home run-to-fly ball ratio, which really shouldn’t jive with Poteet’s 18.8 average launch angle, 12% barrel rate and 40% hard-hit rate. The homers could come in bunches for the Nationals, who deserve praise for how they’ve hit lately.
As for Ross, the Marlins appear unassuming on the surface but should cause him real issues. Sure, the Marlins are 25th in wRC+ over the past week, and haven’t been able to hit the broad side of a barn all year, but there are some signs here that things could turn. Ross carries a .251 expected batting average into this start, and has had his own issues with hard contact given his 13 homers in 13 starts. The Marlins actually lead the way in contact rate over the past week but simply haven’t been able to get anything out of their batted ball events. That should change against Ross, who is getting hit hard whenever he’s getting hit.
I expect some more success at the plate for the Marlins, and continued success for the Nationals, giving us an over.
Look, I think Zach Davies might know what he’s doing. He’s surely the most confusing man in all of baseball, with a poor expected ERA and ERA indicators year after year, yet on the whole his outings tend to be pretty good. That’s because while he does allow a ton of hard contact, that exit velocity exits straight into the ground, and an above-average infield defense is right there to help out.
We’ve seen some stellar starts out of Davies against good lineups, and this could be the latest. The Dodgers really haven’t looked like themselves at the plates, and at the very least I think Davies holds them at bay enough to let the Cubs get into this game.
Walker Buehler really has left a lot to be desired this year, failing to truly dominate some weak competition. His strikeouts gave been up and down, and now walks have become a huge cause for concern. It’s not as if he’s been immune to hard contact, and has a career-worst 8.4% barrel rate to this point. It seems like a perfect matchup for a Cubs team that is picky at the plate and knows how to run into fastballs. I could see traffic on the basepaths all night for Chicago and a couple big bops which do the Dodgers in. The value is all on Chicago on the road.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.