The rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the value of each driver.
The DraftKings Pocono Green 225 Recycled by J.P. Mascaro & Sons slate locks at 12:00 p.m. ET on Sunday.
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1. Justin Allgaier ($10,400) — Track position is crucial at Pocono. With his equipment and talent, Allgaier should remain upfront all race long giving him the best opportunity to score hog points (fast laps and laps led points).
2. Austin Cindric ($11,000) — It’s not easy to move forward at Pocono, but it should not be too much of a challenge for Cindric in this field. Cindric’s combination of place differential points, finishing position points and a sprinkling of hog points, could be enough to pay off this price tag.
3. Ty Gibbs ($10,800) — The No. 54 JGR car is having a legendary season. Crew chief Chris Gayle got demoted when Erik Jones got fired. He has responded by winning five Xfinity races, and he would have more if Ty Dillon didn’t buy a handful of turns in the No. 54 car.
4. Daniel Hemric ($9,700) — Pocono isn’t a track that rewards the best driver. A good driver in great equipment can win this race. This feels like the race where Hemric finally gets his first win (+700 to win at the DraftKings Sportsbook).
5. Harrison Burton ($9,300) — Very few drivers can score double-digit place differential points. Very few drivers can score double-digit hog points. Burton is one of the few drivers that can do the latter. If he can hold off Allgaier during stage one, then he can be optimal.
6. Myatt Snider ($7,300) — Over the last month, Snider has finished 26th, 29th, 33rd and 31st. Those poor performances have earned him a starting position of 19th and an affordable price tag. Snider is in a position to be a great point-per-dollar play, or he can wreck again.
7. Colby Howard ($5,200) — JD Motorsports cars should earn top 25 finishes, but Howard is averaging a 28th place finish over his last six races. That will work in cash games with his price, but if he does what he is supposed to do, then he’ll work in tournaments.
8. Jeffrey Earnhardt ($5,600) — When his JD Motorsports car does not fall apart and he doesn’t wreck, Earnhardt is a 20th place driver. He could easily hit 6x value on Sunday and he could easily DNF.
9. Jade Buford ($5,900) — Pocono is a flat banked track and these tracks are believed to favor road course drivers, but there is little evidence to support that theory. DFS players are going to be drawn to Buford’s starting position and price, so they will look for a reason to defend this pick. Thus, the flat track theory will be promoted this weekend.
10. AJ Allmendinger ($9,500) — He could lead laps in stage one and become relevant in DFS for once, but he’s not likely going to win. In a race matchups bet at the DraftKings Sportsbook, Justin Allgaier has a head-to-head bet against Allmendinger. With all due respect to AJ, Allgaier at -115 to earn a better finish seems like easy money.
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11. Brandon Jones ($9,100) — Last Season at Pocono, Jones won the Truck race, then wrecked on the first lap of the Xfinity race. That’s the most Brandon Jones thing ever. Pocono is a 90% equipment and 10% skill race. He fits in DFS lineups and his +1500 to win odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook are attractive.
12. Sam Mayer ($10,000) — The No. 8 JR Motorsports car is a top 10 ride depending on the driver. Mayer is a talented driver that has been making the most of his part-time opportunities in the Truck Series. He won at Bristol driving for GMS last season.
13. Noah Gragson ($10,600) — His back-to-back top 10 finishes may not seem like an accomplishment, but he desperately needed those results. The next step is for Gragson to return to being a consistent top five driver. Even when Gragson graduates to that level, he’ll still be a borderline DFS play because he needs to win at his price point.
14. Josh Berry ($10,200) — His JR Motorsports season is over, and he might do himself a favor by calling it a year. Instead, he’s going to push onward, and run weak equipment. Berry is going to need a lot of luck to earn a top 15 finish on Sunday.
15. Brett Moffitt ($6,700) — Our Motorsports was on the verge of establishing itself as a top 10 team. Now, they can’t even earn a top 20 finish. Moffitt has failed to earn a top 20 in three of his last four races, but he did finish eighth at Texas two weeks ago.
16. Riley Herbst ($8,900) — He’s not cheap enough and he’s not starting deep enough in the field. Technically, this car won at Pocono last season, but this car won everywhere last season and that hasn’t helped Herbst.
17. Loris Hezemans ($4,600) — A Mario Gosselin car is priced near the minimum and it’s starting near the rear. The only catch is Hezemans is driving. This Euro NASCAR driver finished 31st at Phoenix, but this time he’s in much better equipment.
18. Blaine Perkins ($5,500) — Only 21 cars finished on the lead lap at Pocono last season. If Perkins avoids the chaos and his Our Motorsports car doesn’t break down, then he could earn a top 25 through attrition.
19. Carson Ware ($5,000) — The youngest Ware brother has apparently given up on his rap career and, for at least this week, he’s focusing on racing. The No. 17 car is a top 20 car, but Ware is barely a top 30 driver. However, wrecks and failures could result in a top 25 day.
20. Mason Massey ($4,800) — This will be his 13th race for B.J. McLeod. His average finish is 26th and he’s been running at the finish in 10 of his 12 races. Massey is cheap and he is starting 36th; he’s the punt du jour.
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