We had to wait till past midnight due to rain delays in Boston, but we wrapped up last week with a 2-1 mark in article plays, which pushes out record for the season to 14-9. All things considered, it’s a pretty good start to the year, but we’ll look to keep the momentum going during a full-day of baseball action this afternoon and this evening.
Here are my three favorite MLB bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays
First 5: Blue Jays ML (-155)
I think the distinction of betting this game in the first five innings is very important. Not only do you get slightly better odds, but the weakest element of Toronto’s roster at this point of the season is the team’s bullpen. Blue Jays relievers have a combined 4.80 xFIP across the past 30 days, which has resulted in several late blown leads in the last few weeks. Really, Jordan Romano is about the only person Charlie Montoyo can trust at the moment, and he threw 23 pitches on Tuesday, putting his availability on Wednesday in question.
Other than that, everything leans Toronto’s direction tonight. Alek Manoah looked amazing in his first MLB outing, throwing six scoreless innings and utilizing what appeared to be an effective change-up. The Marlins have mustered just a .121 ISO versus right-handed pitching in 2021 — the second-lowest mark in baseball — while the Blue Jays lead the league in slugging percentage (.475) and wOBA (.350) over the last 30 days. Also, Pablo Lopez has struggled immensely on the road this season, where he’s allowed opponents to register a whopping .358 wOBA. Toronto should easily win this contest, but there’s no need to sweat it out in the final innings.
Alek Manoah Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-121)
While we don’t have a huge sample of information about Manoah at the MLB level, we do know this: The right-hander has strikeout stuff. The former first-round pick racked up seven strikeouts across six innings in the first start of his career last week, and he posted a 40.9% strikeout rate in the 18.0 innings he tossed at Triple-A prior to his promotion. Manoah has no issue missing bats.
Also, for everything we don’t know about Manoah, we have ample information about this anemic Marlins lineup. Across the past two weeks, the Marlins rank in the top five in baseball in both strikeout rate (27.0%) and swinging strike rate (13.2%). In fact, Miami owns the National League’s highest chase rate for the season as a whole (33.4%). This is a team full of free-swingers and one that won’t punish you for pitching in the strike zone. That sounds like a dream combination for a pitcher of Manoah’s pedigree and archetype.
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Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Under 8.5 (-110)
To me, this simply projects as a low-scoring affair. Obviously it doesn’t hurt that the under has hit in 11 of the Yankees’ past 13 games, but even in a vacuum, I think runs will be at a premium in this AL East battle.
Shane McClanahan has been everything you could ask for in a rookie starting pitcher, maintaining a 3.10 xERA and a 2.98 FIP across 27.1 innings of work, and doing so with a fastball that touches 100 mph. On the other side, Jordan Montgomery has managed a 3.04 FIP across his past six outings, a span of time where he’s also held opponents to a paltry .299 wOBA. With the Rays having struggled versus southpaw pitching all season long, I’d anticipate another quality appearance for the 28-year-old on Wednesday. It’s not like things get any easier when these teams go to their relievers, either, as both teams rank inside the top five in bullpen ERA.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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