It’s Thursday, and that not only means the weekend is around the corner, it means we’ve got plenty of baseball on the docket. I’ve taken a look at the entire card and I think I’ve picked out three winners.
Here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets
Mets ML (-124)
I love to fade Kyle Hendricks, but this is a particularly bad spot for the righty.
Despite all the big injuries their lineup has sustained, the Mets have the seventh-best wRC+ over the past two weeks, and their only real weakness has been strikeouts, as 26.4% of their plate appearances have resulted in one. The lineup is seventh in walk rate and second in home run-to-fly ball ratio, all things that should signal another Hendricks implosion.
All the Cubs’ righty has done this year is give up home runs. The 19 Hendricks has allowed leads all big-leaguers, and he’s just three shy of a career-high despite being only 13 starts into his 2021 campaign. His already-low strikeout rate is down again to 17.9%, which indicates he probably won’t be able to escape many jams against the Mets.
On the other hand, Marcus Stroman has been dominant this year, and even though his expected ERA signals a bit of regression is headed his way, good whiff and chase rates should really play up against this strikeout-happy Cubs team, which prefers to hit lefties, anyway.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Cardinals ML (+170)
If you’re into the idea of fading a pitcher with the new crackdowns on sticky substances coming, here’s your chance.
Charlie Morton’s spin rates have come down from the 2600 rpm mark to the low-2500s in recent starts, and as a result his performances have been nothing short of shaky. He’s allowed 11 earned runs in his last 14.0 innings — a stretch spanning three starts — and he’s struck out just eight in his last nine innings, which is a far cry from the form we’ve seen from the right-hander over his late-career resurgence.
St. Louis hasn’t exactly brought it at the plate lately, but with the talent on its roster, I find it hard to believe the Cardinals are worthy of being an underdog of this magnitude, particularly when the Braves haven’t hit that well over the past two weeks, either.
John Gant has been bad lately, but he’s run into two lineups hitting exceptionally well at the moment. I think he’s due for a better start here.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies
Rockies ML (+135)
It’s always embarrassing to see the Rockies ahead of you in any offensive statistical category, but that’s what we have here. The Brewers have actually had a lower wRC+ over the past week! At Coors Field, it’s going to be offense versus offense almost every time, with pitchers seldom rising above the adverse park conditions, and here I think the Rockies have the better offense.
You can go back the last two weeks, even, and the Rockies have a league-average offense. We know this team has hit all year at home with a .347 wOBA at Coors, and the Brewers have simply failed to make contact, let alone quality contact, as of late. Brandon Woodruff, of course, would have the edge over German Marquez on a neutral field, but not only has Woodruff looked off in his past two outings, Marquez has actually pitched better at altitude in 2021 (3.99 ERA at home vs. 5.74 ERA on the road). I’m falling in love with this offense and think it lifts Colorado to yet another win.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.