Eight games take place Wednesday night and my job is to tell you about them. So I will do my job now.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jacob deGrom, $11,000, New York Mets (-335) vs. Chicago Cubs (+270) — I mean at this point, what else is there to say about deGrom? He played catch on Sunday and Mets manager Luis Rojas said he was good to go to start tonight. The numbers that deGrom are producing is almost comical, as his 0.56 ERA almost aligns perfectly with his 0.93 FIP. That shouldn’t be possible through 64 innings of work, where he’s allowed four total hitters to round all the bases and score (that were earned, deGrom has allowed seven total runs). He also hasn’t allowed a run in three straight starts or more than one in a game. I would love to say that this level of dominance is unsustainable but I honestly can’t.
Just for laughs, I looked up the numbers for the Cubs as underdogs this season. They’re 15-18 on the moneyline in that scenario overall and just 6-15 as road dogs. They also aren’t strong on the run line either, going 14-17-2 as dogs and 9-11-1 as road dogs. Obviously, the +270 line is an attractive one if the Cubs can pull off the upset but the Mets have won six straight with their ace on the hill and are 7-3 overall.
Other notable favorite: Zack Greinke ($7,400; -240) vs. Texas Rangers
Highest Projected Total
Boston Red Sox (+143; 3.5 runs) at Atlanta Braves (-175; 4.5 runs) 9 runs — Wednesday features a few games with a game total of at least nine but this one has a -113 on the over, which is the largest of the bunch. The Braves are big favorites in this one against Garrett Richards ($6,600) who is crashing back down to Earth after a stellar month and a half. Over his last five starts, Richards has thrown 28 2/3 innings allowing 14 runs on 36 hits, including 10 doubles. Opposing hitters are making a ton of hard contact against him at well, with a 43.3% hard-hit rate over that span.
Now he faces a Braves team that have some of the best offensive numbers in the league at home. They boast a .336 wOBA, a .218 ISO (best in the league) and a 110 wRC+ when hitting at Truist Park. Aside from liking the over in this game, I would hone in on the Braves team total as well, which the over is set at -130. The Braves average 5.2 runs per game at home this season, which ranks them sixth in the league. If making a stack in daily fantasy, both sides of the plate are hitting Richards hard, so it truly could be the 1-5 hitters.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $175K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st
Weather Notes
No weather concerns for tonight!
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Justus Sheffield, .356, 4.56
Garrett Richards, .345, 3.96
Jordan Lyles, .335, 4.48
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Clayton Kershaw, .145, 1.80
Jacob deGrom, .184, 2.18
Zack Greinke, .233, 3.19
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Ross Stripling, .389, 5.23
Jordan Lyles, .382, 5.20
Justus Sheffield, .359, 5.21
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jacob deGrom, .143, -0.30
Anthony DeSclafani, .202, 2.78
Gerrit Cole, .230, 2.12
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, $9,600 — We all know you should be playing deGrom first and foremost. This is not me saying he isn’t the top pitcher on the slate because he is. This is me giving you another viable option.
I think Wheeler is in a low-key sneaky spot against the Dodgers. He’s quietly put together a really strong first-half and has allowed one run or less in six of his last 10 starts. Since the beginning of May, Wheeler sports a .215 wOBA, a 1.66 FIP, an 11.8 K/9 and just a 21% hard-hit rate allowed. Now he faces the Dodgers, who once again lost Cody Bellinger to the IL and are still without Corey Seager. The Dodgers lineup gets really ugly after Will Smith ($4,800) in the cleanup spot. I think this is a really good opportunity to target Wheeler in what is perceived as a tough matchup but in reality, is a lot softer than expected.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers, $4,700 — If Jordan Lyles ($5,400) is taking the mound, I’m always going out of my way to grab power-hitting lefties. Lyles seemingly clams up when this matchup comes up and instead of generating outs, he generates runs for the opposing team. On the season, lefties have tagged him for a .335 wOBA, a 4.48 FIP and three home runs. As for Alvarez, he’s been mashing against righties with a .379 wOBA, a .237 ISO and a 147 wRC+. Specifically, as of late, Alvarez has been hitting the ball extremely well, going 11-for-38 with three doubles, two home runs and eight RBI over his last 10 games.
Save Big by Drafting
Amed Rosario, Cleveland Indians vs.Baltimore Orioles, $3,800 — Rosario is not a big power guy but he’s quietly put together a really solid on at the plate lately. Averaging 10.7 DKFP over his last 10 games, which only includes a home run and a triple, Rosario has been scoring fantasy points in numerous ways. He’s included two stolen bases and 17 hits in that span, which has also seen him score 10 runs. Tonight he faces the lefty Keegan Akin ($5,900) who throws a ton of pitches early and strikeouts less than a batter an inning. Rosario has hit better against lefties this season as well, posting a .320 wOBA with a .165 ISO and a 110 wRC+.
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