Monday’s are the worst. You can’t tell me otherwise. At least we have a 13-game slate we can dive into. Come on in, the waters great!
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Alex Wood, $8,500, San Francisco Giants (-200) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+170) — Wood is an inexpensive $8,500 on tonight’s daily fantasy slate but he’s the biggest favorite of all the games on DraftKings Sportsbook. This will be the first time he sees this team in 2021 and he’s coming off some less than ideal starts as of late. Over his last three games, Wood has seen the Rangers, Angels and Dodgers and allowed a combined 15 runs on 15 hits through just 15 innings. It’s not as if he’s been getting unlucky either, as he had a .411 wOBA, a 7.02 FIP and a 2.4 HR/9 in those starts.
The Diamondbacks have also been a sneaky team against lefties. They boast some impressive numbers that include a .325 wOBA, a .188 ISO and a 105 wRC+. The D-Backs also rank eight in the league in runs scored against lefties. With all this considered, it’s extremely difficult to want to back Wood is such a large favorite. To be fair, the D-Backs are running Matt Peacock ($5,300) out to the mound, who hasn’t exactly been good himself. He’s made 10 appearances and five starts, which he has a .344 wOBA, and a 4.96 FIP.
I think taking o4.5 runs through the first five innings is my favorite in in this game, especially with it at +100.
Other notable favorite: Adam Wainwright ($8,800; -175) vs. Miami Marlins
Highest Projected Total
San Diego Padres (-155; 6.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (+133; 4.5 runs) 11 runs — A huge total for the Padres, who have a projected 6.5 team total. This is the second time they’ve visited Coors Field this season but only one of those games was a full nine innings, as the others were makeup games and were seven innings. The Padres are 33-33-1 with the over while the Rockies are 25-41. Specifically at Coors Field, the over is hitting exactly 50% of the time at 16-16-2.
I have to give credit to Austin Gomber ($7,000), who has been extremely effective at Coors Field. Somehow, through 20 1/3 innings, he has a .232 wOBA, a 3.30 FIP and has allowed just one of his nine home runs. If he can continue to pitch as well as he has, it’ll be up to the Rockies bullpen to aid the Padres in hitting the over on their team total. That is completely possible, as the Rockies bullpen has statistically been one of the worst in the league at home. This Padres offense has really been struggling as of late, averaging just 2.4 runs over the last five game but they did drop seven against the Mets yesterday afternoon. This is probably a pass for me from a betting perspective, as I don’t have a strong lean on either side.
I only have to include one game in this section today and that makes me very happy.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals - This could be a total non-issue or trouble near the end of the game. Depending on the timing of the rain, this has a legitimate chance of seeing a lengthy delay or worse in the later part of the evening.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Dean Kremer, .406, 7.20
Matt Peacock, .402, 7.72
Alex Wood, .397, 6.84
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Marco Gonzales, .166, 3.74
Sean Manaea, .187, 2.85
Tyler Glasnow, .196, 2.40
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Marco Gonzales, .413, 6.32
Eric Lauer, .408, 5.95
Kenta Maeda, .391, 5.07
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Lance Lynn, .212, 2.66
Matt Peacock, .256, 2.80
Alex Wood, .275, 3.29
Pitcher to Build Around
Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $9,900 — It’s amazing to me that Lynn is still under $10K at this point. I get it, he’s $100 under and it’s almost like saying .99 cents isn’t $1 but still. For the way he’s been pitching, I don’t get why he’s only the third most expensive pitcher. For the record, I’M NOT COMPLAINING.
It’s hard to justify paying for anyone else when Lynn has allowed no more than a run in eight of this 11 starts. The other three he’s allowed no more than three runs. The numbers back up his amazing run as well, as he boasts a a 2.97 FIP, a 25.6% hard-hit rate and has stranded 90% of the runners on base. The Rays have been a good hitting club against righties but we truly have yet to see a team hit Lynn hard. Until then, Lynn feels essentially matchup proof.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, $5,500 — Vladdy baby is absolutely crushing the ball lately. This man can’t be stopped. He’s scored at least 25 DKFP in three straight games, all of which have come against the Red Sox. In this series, he’s gone 7-for-14 with three home runs, a double and seven RBI. Tonight, he faces Nathan Eovaldi ($8,600) who hasn’t pitched well overly well at Fenway Park, allowing 27 of the 34 runs he’s given up. With the entire Red Sox pitching staff struggling, it’s easy enough to slot in these Blue Jays bats, especially Vlad.
Save Big by Drafting
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals $3,300 — I really like Reynolds as an under the radar play against Jon Lester ($6,700). Reynolds has some really strong numbers against lefties and comes into this game with a .426 wOBA, a .265 ISO and a 174 wRC+. Those numbers stay consistent on the road against them but he sees a nice bump in his ISO, which jumps to .308. With Lester seeing a large drop off in ground balls and an uptick in line drives and fly balls, I think this is a great spot to get what feels like an underpriced Reynolds.
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