Hello, it’s the first day of June. Summer soon.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Michael Pineda, $9,400, Minnesota Twins (-190) at Baltimore Orioles (+155)— Ugh. I’m certainly not excited about backing Pineda as a big favorite tonight. The numbers simply tell us he’s been getting lucky and that 2.62 ERA is a big fat LIAR. His FIP currently stands 4.43 to go with a 31% hard-hit rate and a 46.1% fly ball rate. Now, are the Orioles the team that’ll show Pineda’s true colors? I’m not so sure about that but I’m not looking to back Pineda at -190. The Twins are 4-4 on the moneyline in games he’s started, despite him allowing no more than three runs in seven of those games.
The Twins will be a nice stack from a daily fantasy perspective against Bruce Zimmermann ($5,500). He’s been pitched as advertised with a 5.15 ERA and a 5.47 FIP. Home runs have been an issue for him with a 2.06 HR/9 and striking out less than a batter an inning with a 7.4 K/9. The Twins are always a dangerous team against lefties and currently own a .322 wOBA, a .192 ISO and a 107 wRC+.
Other notable favorite: Brady Singer ($6,900; -186) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
STEVE BUCHANAN'S SUPERSTAR TRIO ODDS BOOST ON @DKSportsbook— Steve Buchanan (@SBuchanan24) June 1, 2021
Only ONE of these three needs to hit a home run tonight for the ✅. Fernando Tatis Jr, Adolis Garcia or Garrett Cooper. Boosted from -152 to +115.
Place your bets here: https://t.co/pwQ7EEc1rW pic.twitter.com/FZNHW6CTLo
Highest Projected Total
Texas Rangers (+102; 4.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (-120; 4.5 runs) 9.5 runs — I have a suspicion this total will climb to double-digits before first pitch happens. Until that happens, I would be grabbing the over on 9.5 runs. While the under has hit more for both teams (52.9% for the Rockies and 53.7% for the Rangers) I don’t believe this is going to be an under. After a slow start for Coors Field, the over is now 14-12-2 on the year. Specifically in German Marquez ($6,700) starts at home this season, the over is 4-2-1.
It’s easy to see why when 20 of the 29 runs he’s allowed have come at Coors Field, which spans across 36 2/3 innings. The Rangers offense has been struggling as of late but they have some good smashers against righties, specifically my guy Adolis Garcia ($4,200), who is a bargain to be at Coors at this price point. As I mentioned, I think this has a great chance of going over and would try and pounce on a favorable number that’s currently under the double-digit mark.
Hey, no weather issues again!
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Hendricks, .463, 6.47
David Peterson, .372, 2.61
Garrett Richards, .347, 4.02
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Marcos Gonzales, .134, 2.93
Ryan Weathers, .186, 2.25
Tyler Glasnow, .196, 2.52
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Marco Gonzales, .446, 7.08
Wil Crowe, .414, 6.32
Max Fried, .372, 4.42
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Aaron Nola, .243, 2.33
Chris Bassitt, .251, 2.04
Alex Wood, .256, 2.93
Pitcher to Build Around
Robbie Ray, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins, $8,500 — This is the second time I’ve written up Ray this season and that’s honestly upsetting. This is a pitcher I swore I would never use again for the number of times he’s burned me. As you can see, I’m a total fraud and coward and will use him again tonight. To be fair, the matchup is s good one.
He’ll be taking on the Marlins who really struggle against lefties. Truly, we don’t have much to say about them in a positive manner when they face southpaws. Entering this game, they have a .302 wOBA with a .165 ISO and a 94 wRC+. Oh, they also strikeout a TON with a 27.5% K%, which plays nicely into the 10.3 K/9 that Ray has. Ray has been seeing a big improvement in his swing-and-miss rate, going from 12.6% last season to 15.7% through nine starts. It’s never, ever a great feeling to roster Ray but the numbers align for tonight.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Trea Turner, Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, $5,600 — Turner is always worth a look as a hitter who can contribute in every category. His power, speed and ability to get on base are a perfect mix for an expensive bat to pay up for. Tonight he takes on Max Fried ($7,500) who hasn’t made a start since May 23 due to postponements. He’s been throwing the ball really well as of late but a really light schedule has contributed to his success. Against righties, Fried has a .372 wOBA with a 4.42 FIP and all four of the home runs he’s allowed. Meanwhile, Turner has smashed lefties with a .483 wOBA, a .286 ISO and a 207 wRC+ in 48 plate appearances this season.
Save Big by Drafting
Austin Slater, San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Angels $3,300 — The Giants overall aren’t going to get much attention despite the really strong numbers they’ve posted against lefties. As a team, they have a .336 wOBA, a .190 ISO and 116 wRC+. If you want to grab at least a piece of this offense, Slater is a great choice at just $3,300. His .408 wOBA, a .296 ISO and five of the seven home runs he’s hit have all come against lefties. Facing Andrew Heaney ($7,700), who has allowed five home runs over his last three starts, should be a prime matchup to target.
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