I’m taking a trip out to Missouri for all of Friday’s best MLB bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Rodon hasn’t logged fewer than seven punchouts in a game this season. So, you may be wondering why his strikeout prop is only set at 5.5. Well, the Royals don’t strike out a ton against left-handed pitching, posting the third-best strikeout rate against lefties so far this season.
But, Cleveland’s strikeout rate against left-handed pitching isn’t even half a percentage point higher than Kansas City’s (17.7% vs. 20.1%), and Rodon struck out seven the first time he saw the Indians. The second time he got a shot at Cleveland, Rodon struck out nine over five innings.
The Royals are middle of the pack in OPS and ISO against left-handed pitching, so Rodon isn’t in danger of getting knocked out early. Not that an early exit should be a concern with the White Sox lefty. His swinging strike rate is up over 17%, and hitters are swinging at the pitches he throws out of the zone more often and making contact less frequently.
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
We aren’t done in KC just yet.
The White Sox smacked Keller around for six hits (two homers and a double) last time they met in early April. That’s one of the four times the Royals righty has hit the over on Friday’s prop through six starts this season.
The biggest question with this bet: will Keller last long enough to hit the over? Yes, for two reasons.
First, Kansas City’s bullpen worked quite a bit in their last series. That doesn’t mean Keller will last beyond the five, but we don’t need him to. We just can’t have him knocked out before the third inning, which has happened to him twice this season. (Though, he did hit the over on Friday’s prop in one of those outings.) Given Royals relievers have worked a little extra of late, Keller will have to eat up some innings no matter what.
While the White Sox should comfortably get six-plus hits off of Keller, they won’t make Mike Matheny consider a super-early hook on Friday. Chicago is middle of the pack in OPS against right-handed pitching and has one of the worst ISO’s against righties.
The Rockies are in the top 10 in OPS, ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. But, what happens when Colorado plays away from Coors Field? Fourth-worst road OPS against all pitchers. Seventh-worst road wOBA against all pitchers. Here’s the least shocking one of them all: dead-last in road ISO against all pitchers.
And the Rockies are going up against Jack Flaherty, who held down the best team against right-handed pitchers in OPS and ISO (Cincinnati) just two starts ago.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals face a lefty in Austin Gomber on Friday. St. Louis has the second-best OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitchers and the fourth-best ISO against lefties.
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