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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for May 6

Steve Buchanan breaks down Thursday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Atlanta Braves v Washington Nationals Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images


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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Nathan Eovaldi, $8,400, Boston Red Sox (-210) vs. Detroit Tigers (+175)— The Tigers were able to steal a victory from the Red Sox last night when they scored three runs in the 10th inning. The Red Sox almost came back to tie it but were unsuccessful, giving the Tigers only their ninth win of the season.

This afternoon, Eovaldi will make his seventh start of the season and brings with him a a 22.4% K%, a 4.9% BB% and a 2.12 FIP. As we’ve said multiple times in this article, the Tigers LOVE to strikeout against righties. Currently, the Tigers have a 29.6% K% with a .280 wOBA, a .160 ISO and just a 80 wRC+. Eovaldi has been pitching even better than his numbers indicate and his swing-and-miss rate is currently at a new career-high of 13.3%. The Red Sox SHOULD be winning this game against Spencer Turnbull ($6,800) and the worst bullpen in the league but I can’t say I’m looking forward to backing a -210 favorite.

Other notable favorite: Gerrit Cole ($10,500; -200) vs. Houston Astros

Highest Projected Total

Atlanta Braves (-110; 4.5 runs) at Washington Nationals (-110; 4.5 runs) 9 runs — The Nationals have been a tough team to take the over with. They currently rank dead last in the league with an 8-16-2 record hitting the over. Every other team in the league has at least 10 games under their betting hitting the over on the game total. The Braves are one of the best teams at 17-12-1 and cover by an average of 1.4 runs. With that in mind, I’d be more comfortable take their team total of 4.5 runs rather than the overall total.

Jon Lester ($6,400) is making his second start as a National after tossing five innings against the Marlins. He was able to shut them out while scattering five hits and striking out one. The issue here is that the Braves have ben one of the worst teams against lefties. It’s quite remarkable as they have just a .246 wOBA, a .147 ISO and a 52 wRC+. I’m simply having a hard time believing that Lester, who has been average at best for years now, will shut down this club. He doesn’t miss bats, a lot of hard contact is made against him and the long ball has been an issue. I think the Braves go over the 4.5 total runs between Lester and this bullpen.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $175K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]

Weather Notes

No weather concerns!

Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
John Gant, .358, 5.60
Jordan Lyles, .325, 3.19
Michael Pineda, .314, 5.25

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Gerrit Cole, .140, -0.29
Brandon Woodruff, .191, 1.72
Lance McCullers Jr., .275, 3.24

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jordan Lyles, .452, 8.04
Drew Smyly, .412, 8.22
Hyun-Jin Ryu, .323, 3.34

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Danny Duffy, .203, 1.89
Brandon Woodruff, .214, 2.54
Michael Pineda, .217, 3.36

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $9,600 — This Brewers offense really continues to struggle. They’re a lineup that needs to be targeted against and I’ll be doing so with Wheeler. To be fair, Wheeler hasn’t exactly dominated so far this season but I like the strikeout upside he brings in this game. The Brewers are fourth in the league in K% at 26.7% to go with a .289 wOBA, a .145 ISO and a 80 wRC+. Despite some of his struggles, Wheeler still has a 3.41 FIP and his limited hard contact at 28.3%. His ability to miss bats is really where I am intrigued, generating a 12% swing-and-miss rate thus far. I’m banking on him to have a strong start against this lineup that is striking out a ton and struggling offensively.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Trea Turner, Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves, $5,300 — Turner has come out of the gate crushing lefties, which is par for the course. In the early going, Turner has already posted a .531 wOBA with a .357 ISO and a 233 wRC+. If we pull these numbers back to 2020, it’s still an incredible .502 wOBA with a .357 wOBA and a 216 wRC+. The Braves, for whatever reason, still are pitching Drew Smyly ($7,200), who has allowed five runs in three straight starts. Smyly has been getting hit early and often and righties have tagged him with a .412 wOBA, an 8.22 FIP and six of the nine home runs he’s allowed.

Save Big by Drafting

Andrew Benintendi, Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians, $3,000 — I’m honestly puzzled by the salary for Benintendi. For someone that is averaging 10.7 DKFP over his last 10 games, he’s still extremely affordable. To be fair, he has gone up $500 since yesterday but we’re talking about going from $2,500 to $3,000. Over these 10 games, he’s gone 15-for-37 with two doubles, two home runs, five RBI and two stolen bases. He faces Triston McKenzie ($6,600), who hasn’t pitched in the majors much but has a career .370 wOBA with a 6.03 FIP and six of the 11 home runs he’s allowed in 12 appearances. Getting someone hitting as well as Benintendi at $3K is a no-brainer.

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