Fair warning, I feel like I’m snakebitten when it comes to MLB bets the past few days. Not only did we go 1-2 last Wednesday in article plays — bringing down our record for the season to 7-4 — but I was recently on the losing end of a total thanks to the new extra innings rule. I can assure you, nothing sends a chill up your spine more than remembering that each team will start with a runner in scoring position when you’ve got just two runs to spare for the under.
Anyway, let’s bury the past and try to get back in the green. Here are my favorite MLB bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Team Total: Nationals OV 3.5 Runs (-125)
The Braves are slight road favorites in tonight’s contest against the Nationals, which is interesting to say the least. Though it’s clear that Atlanta has one of the best offenses in baseball, I’m not quite sure what Max Fried has done so far in 2021 to earn that type of respect. While the left-hander was phenomenal in his 11 starts last season, Fried hasn’t yet seen that success carry over to the present. In fact, no pitcher in baseball that’s induced at least 25 batted ball events has a higher opponent wOBA than Fried (.501), and that’s before he missed the last two weeks with a hamstring issue. Meanwhile, Washington might welcome Juan Soto back into the starting lineup on Wednesday and, even if they don’t, the Nationals sit first in MLB in batting average versus LHPs (.300) and second in wOBA within the split (.373). There’s also the matter of the Braves’ bullpen, which owns a 4.88 xFIP across the past 14 days — the second-worst figure in the league. Washington should have little issue putting up runs.
I don’t play around with the run line often, but I think tonight presents an interesting opportunity with the Red Sox. All you really need to know to understand this bet is that the Tigers have been a special level of horrible when it comes to hitting left-handed pitching in 2021. Coming into today’s slate, Detroit sits dead-last within the split by wide margins in ISO (.067), wOBA (.215) and wRC+ (35). The Tigers have also just straight up lost the last seven games in which they’ve faced a southpaw starter. Well, Martin Perez is left-handed, and he’s pitched to a decent 3.59 FIP through his first five starts of the season. As for run support, Casey Mize has been touched up quite a bit, as the former first-overall pick enters action on Wednesday sitting in the 15th percentile of the league in expected ERA (5.96) and expected wOBA (.386). Behind Mize is a Detroit bullpen that’s conceded a league-high 2.16 home runs per nine. Basically, this could get lopsided quickly.
While most people will look at this bet and assume it’s a reaction to Shane Bieber taking the mound this evening for Cleveland, it has just as much to do with Brady Singer. The former first-round pick has been incredible in his last four outings, a span in which he’s held opponents to a modest .230 wOBA and maintained a strikeout rate of 26.3%. Heck, for the season as a whole, Singer’s surrendered an opponent barrel to only 2.0% of the batters he’s faced — the lowest mark of any American League pitcher with at least 50 batted ball events. With both of these teams ranking in the lower-half of the league in total runs scored, I have a strong suspicion we’ll get through the opening frame clean.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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