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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for May 5

Steve Buchanan breaks down Wednesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

See? Now Cinco de Mayo is a holiday I can get down with. Not the dumb Star Wars one.

Whatever. Let’s talk some baseball for Wednesday.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.

DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Yu Darvish, $10,200, San Diego Padres (-250) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+200)— The Pirates actually stole a win last night against the Padres by a score of 2-1. If anything positive came out for the Padres, it was that Dinelson Lamet came out of the start healthy.

Tonight, the Padres face a much tougher task against Darvish, who has nearly been untouchable since his first start of the season. He’s allowed exactly one run in each of his last five starts while striking out 43 through 33 13 innings. The Pirates don’t strike out a ton, they actually have one of the lowest K% in the league against righties at 22.8%, which ranks 23rd. To that end, they also don’t hit well either with a .296 wOBA, a .122 ISO and an 86 wRC+. Darvish is one of two pitchers priced above $10K with Shane Bieber ($10,400) being the other. Darvish most certainly has the better matchup but Bieber continues to rack up strikeouts at a torrid rate with a 39.5% K% on the season.

Other notable favorite: Martin Perez ($6,600; -190) vs. Detroit Tigers

Highest Projected Total

Houston Astros (+120; 4.5 runs) at New York Yankees (-140; 4.5 runs) 9 runs — These teams combined for 10 runs last night as both teams were able to knock the opposing starter out by the fifth inning. Tonight could be more of the same as Luis Garcia ($8,000) will take on Jordan Montgomery ($8,600).

When I see this matchup, I immediately liked the idea of stacking the Astros specifically. While Montgomery hasn’t been bad, he hasn’t been good either. His FIP of 4.04 almost matches his 4.39 ERA and the 1.69 HR/9 isn’t a great number to own either. What I do like to see, at least from an Astros stack standpoint, is the .340 wOBA, a 5.81 FIP and all five of his home runs allowed to righties. This is a good hitting ball club against lefties, highlighted by Alex Bregman ($4,800), Jose Altuve ($4,800) and Yuli Gurriel ($4,900). Those would be my three main pieces in building an Astros stack while potentially mixing in others.

The only concern here is that the Yankees bullpen has been stellar. Over the past week, they boast an amazing 1.82 FIP with a 12.5 K/9 and only a 0.48 HR/9. If you’re stacking the Astros, keep this in mind, as it could be tough sledding to get any more offense out of this bullpen.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

Weather Notes

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox - This looks like the only real danger spot tonight. All throughout the day (can confirm, I’m looking at it happening right now) it’s raining in Boston. By the time the game rolls around, it will be ending, however, field conditions could be less than ideal. Keep an eye on this one.

Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Casey Mize, .423, 6.55
Walker Buehler, .370, 4.95
Chase Anderson, .343, 6.42

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
JT Brubaker, .219, 2.75
Freddy Peralta, .272, 4.16
Yu Darvish, .275, 3.75

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
JT Brubaker, .375, 5.13
Jordan Montgomery, .340, 5.81
Martin Perez, .334, 4.74

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Walker Buehler, .200, 1.74
Adbert Alzolay, .202, 2.75
Shane Bieber, .207, 2.08

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies, $9,500 — A lot of good names going tonight but I’m really digging the idea of using Peralta against the Phillies. The strikeout potential is always high with Peralta and thus far he boasts a 40.2% K%. It would be GREAT if he stopped walking so many guys with his 12.5% BB% but least he’s stranding just under 90% of the runners.

The matchup on paper is an excellent one for Peralta against a Phillies team with a .290 wOBA, a .139 ISO and a 26% K%, which is the seventh-highest mark in the league. What really got my attention is how poorly the Phillies are against the fastball, a pitch Peralta has thrown 54.8% of the time. They rank 26th against the fastball and 21st against the slider, a pitcher Peralta started using last season and has thrown 35% of the time.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers, $5,700 — We really need Buxton to stay healthy because the guy is a certified masher at the plate. Through 22 games he’s slashing .386/.427/.819 with nine home runs, 17 RBI and four stolen bases. Tonight he faces the lefty Hyeon-Jong Yang ($5,000) who’ll be making his first start of the season. He isn’t likely to go deep into this game but getting Buxton against a lefty is ideal.

Actually, getting Buxton against anyone at this point is ideal.

Regardless, against lefties, Buxton has a .516 wOBA, a .357 ISO and a 243 wRC+ this season. His numbers are nearly identical against righties, so the matchup is good regardless. For a guy who is averaging 11.3 DKFP over his last 10 games, I’ll be doing what I can to get him in my lineup.

Save Big by Drafting

Alex Verdugo, Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers, $4,200 — This is a bit more expensive than your normal value play but $4,200 for Verdugo seems crazy. He’s averaging 9.1 DKFP over his last 10 games with four extra base hits and two stolen bases. I love the matchup against Casey Mize ($5,600) who is really struggling with lefties since being in the majors. Since being called up last season, Mize has a .432 wOBA, a 7.79 FIP and eight of the 12 home runs he’s allowed. We have to be careful with the rain in this game but if they can fit this game in, Verdugo will be a lock.

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