These two teams have already combined for five goals or less four times in the series. It’s a Game 7 tonight, and the goalies on both sides have been key in their respective team’s success, with Jack Campbell ($8,000) allowing just four goals in the first four games of the series and Carey Price ($7,500) standing tall in OT last game. With three of the last four games being decided by one goal, we seem unlikely to get a huge blowout here, so a 3-1 or 3-2 game are the likely results. I like targeting the under in this matchup between two teams who haven’t shown the desire to get into offensive shootouts yet in these playoffs.
Despite Beauvillier entering this game with 11 points in his last 10 games and having scored at least one point in his last five games, we’re still getting very good odds to bet he stays on the scoresheet Monday. He’s actually been playing more minutes than the Isles’ other top-six wingers and is also seeing plenty of PP1 exposure for the Isles, who will likely ride their second line as much as possible in Game 2 — it’s been their most productive group. Even against the more defensive-oriented Bruins, this is a bet you can keep targeting at plus-money as Beauvillier has been the Isles’ more consistent offensive player for over a month now.
Top Line Stack
Patrice Bergeron ($7,500) — David Pastrnak ($7,900) — Brad Marchand ($6,900)
Much like Sunday, when the Avalanche’s top line scored five goals and landed 14 SOG, getting access to these elite lines on the small two-game slates is going to be crucial for DFS success most nights throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs. This Boston line scored the third-most of any trio in the league this season and has 28 SOG between them in the last two games. New York doesn’t really have an elite line to match up with the Boston top line here either, so we should expect this line to keep getting chances. Pastrnak finally broke out in Game 1 with a hat trick and now has 30 SOG and five goals over his last five games.
The big surprise on this line, though, has been the production from Bergeron, who comes in averaging 4.8 SOG over his last 10 games and has become an elite producer in these playoffs. While his SOG may be buoyed by some OT games, he grabbed eight SOG in the regulation win in Game 1 vs. the Islanders and has four points over his last two games. The Bruins’ top line is a must roster here, and with some reduced salaries at other positions, they should be your starting point Monday.
Superstar to Target
Tyler Toffoli, Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs ($5,900)
Toffoli hasn’t done much from a fantasy perspective in this series, but he was instrumental in grabbing the Canadiens their Game 6 win. The former King and Canuck has played over 19 minutes now in four straight games and grabbed a goal and an assist in Game 6, to go along with five SOG. The fantasy outburst was welcome by those who stuck with him. With a potentially low-scoring game on tap for game seven, I like targeting him here at this reduced salary to take advantage of the SOG volume.
Toffoli hasn’t been as busy with his shot vs. Toronto, but he did average 3.1 SOG per game in the regular season and definitely has a shot to be the game’s high scorer if he can find the back of the net again. With another expensive top line to target in the other game, I like taking advantage of the sub-$6K salary here on Toffoli and getting access to his upside tonight.
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Value on Offense
Josh Bailey, New York Islanders at Boston Bruins ($3,900)
Bailey has been a big part of the Isles’ effective second line and comes into this game with seven points and averaging 2.2 SOG over his last 10 games. The Islanders’ second line was again their main bright spot on offense vs. the Bruins. With a brutal top-line matchup to deal with, you can expect them again to be the unit New York will have to rely on here. Bailey has now grabbed 14 or more DKFP in four of his last six games and remains a great upside play here for under $4K in price. He’ll make stacking whichever top line you target a lot easier if you roster him.
Nick Foligno, Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens ($3,800)
Foligno returned for Game 5 and logged over 18 minutes of ice time for the Leafs while anchoring their second line. While he only managed three SOG — and the line went scoreless — he’ll likely be playing alongside William Nylander ($6,000) for the most part, a winger who has four goals in the series thus far. With John Tavares (concussion) still out, expect to see a ton of Foligno in this game since he also brings a solid defensive presence. Pairing him with Nylander or even Alex Galchenyuk ($3,600) also makes for a good mini-stack option here as well in daily fantasy.
Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs ($7,500)
While Price and the Canadiens head into this game as +172 moneyline underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook, it is Montreal who has all the momentum in this series. Price has won the goaltending duo against Jack Campbell ($8,300) the last two times out and stopped 41 of 43 SOG in Game 6. The veteran is not only cheaper but is playing on the healthier side right now since the Leafs will still be without Tavares (concussion) and Jake Muzzin (groin).
Price was a winner in his last road Game 7 vs. Boston in 2014 and shouldn’t be fazed regardless of who shows up on the Leafs’ roster today. While Tuukka Rask ($8,300) presents as the safer cash game option, Price is definitely the preferred GPP target here on this two-game slate — he should bring much lower ownership and gives you more salary flexibility to fit in more big names at other positions.
Value on Defense
T.J. Brodie, Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens ($3,500)
Brodie has been the preferred value target of this article over his last couple of appearances, and he’s really paid off if you’ve chosen to target him. He scored a crucial goal in Game 6 — which sent the game to OT — and landed five SOG in Game 5 after playing over 23 minutes. Brodie already plays on the Leafs’ effective top pairing with Morgan Rielly ($5,200) but is likely going to be pressed into even more service here with Muzzin out after leaving Game 6 with a groin issue. Brodie has some offensive upside and will likely see all the ice time he can handle Monday, making him an excellent value at well under $4K.
Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens ($5,200)
Rielly hasn’t done a ton from a fantasy perspective over the last three games, but the opportunities have been there. The Leafs’ most relied on defender hasn’t played fewer than 22 minutes in a game all series and saw 34 minutes in the last OT game. Rielly managed five blocked shots last game, and we should expect a bigger effort in that area for Game 7, as well. Don’t be shocked if he plays close to 30 minutes Monday considering the recent injury to Muzzin. He gives you a good way to get more exposure to the Leafs’ PP1.
Charlie McAvoy, Boston Bruins vs. New York Islanders ($5,500)
McAvoy continues to be an easy defenseman to target for daily fantasy purposes on these two-game slates since his price is still very affordable, and he’s getting plenty of power-play exposure for the Bruins now, as well. His point production has climbed to the point where he’s now producing on pace with some of the best offensive defensemen in the league, entering this game with nine points over his last 10 outings and averaging 12.4 DKFP throughout that span. Regardless of which top six Boston forwards you target Monday, pairing them with the affordable McAvoy is an easy decision.
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