Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Braves vs. Mets Showdown on May 30

Baseball fans are in for a treat on Sunday night. Two of the best pitchers in baseball will square off. If you’re looking for offense and fireworks, then stick to your Memorial Day backyard barbecue. The only explosions in this game will be the sound of the baseball hitting the catcher’s mitt.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Tonight’s Braves-Mets game has been postponed due to inclement weather.

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Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

Captain’s Picks

Jacob deGrom ($17,100 CP) - The New York ace’s MRI revealed that there weren’t any issues with his body. In his first game back from the IL, his average fastball velocity was 99.4 mph (his highest this season). deGrom struck out nine of the 18 batters that he faced in that start. And it’s not just the fastball — he has the fifth-best slider and the second-best changeup in baseball this season. It should be noted that the Braves have a scary offense when they put it all together, and they have finally started to do that (third-best wRC+ over the past two weeks). Still, I’ll take my chances with the best pitcher in baseball.

Max Fried ($15,000) - The Mets are a Triple-A team. Over the past two weeks, they have a .260 wOBA, .137 ISO, 68 wRC+ and a 27% K rate. Billy McKinney is their cleanup hitter. Who’s that? Exactly! He’s a career minor leaguer that the Brewers cut last week. When your cleanup hitter couldn’t make it with a terrible Brewers’ offense, that’s not a good sign, but that’s great news for Fried. His rough start to the season was completely due to bad luck. He had a .462 BABIP against the Phillies, a .700 BABIP against the Nationals and a .438 BABIP against the Marlins. Fried then went on the IL, and since he’s been back, he’s been lights out (3.12 xFIP). His strikeout numbers aren’t as exciting as deGrom’s, but the matchup makes up for it.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $50K Sunday Night Showdown [$10K to 1st] (ATL vs NYM)

Value Plays

Jose Peraza ($7,800) - As noted above, Fried had a sky-high BABIP earlier this season, but bad luck aside, that also means that hitters were making contact. Fried’s swinging strike rate is only 11.4% and he allows a 75% contact rate. Unfortunately for the Mets, only 25% of that contact is hard. The point here is that Fried is good, but not perfect. Someone on the Mets should be able to hit him, and Peraza seems like the best option. Over the last week, Peraza has a .371 wOBA and a .231 ISO. Mainly due to BABIP, Fried is allowing a .371 wOBA to right-handed batters this season.

Brandon Drury ($6,400) - Pitchers aren’t cheap on Showdown slates, so that means DFS players will have to roster some unappealing bats. That might sound like a losing proposition, but if the pitchers do what they’re expected to do, then none of these hitters are good plays. If that’s the case, then spend down and get what you can. No one wants to target Fried, but targeting deGrom is even worse. Drury was hitting a cool .192 in Triple-A until the Mets were forced to call someone up. He did manage to hit a home run against a lefty this week, and a couple of seasons ago he was an everyday outfielder for the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks. This is just a punt, and other bad Mets are just as likely to scrape together a few points. The key to picking the right cheap Met on this slate is to find one with a pulse, and one that is in the lineup.

Fades

Francisco Lindor ($14,100 CP; $9,400) - DFS players do not want to target deGrom and they do not want to roster nobodies. However, the urge to select Lindor’s name must be resisted. We are two months into the season, Lindor’s problems are worse than a slump. In his defense, his BABIP is .205, his K rate is 14% and his hard contact rate is 32%. He does seem a little unlucky, but this should have normalized by now. His struggles are mental and his mechanics in the batter’s box do not seem to be improving (over the last week, Lindor has a .196 wOBA). A matchup against Fried doesn’t seem like the place where he gets back in the groove.

The Outcome

Since 2018, Jacob deGrom’s run support is the third lowest in baseball. For most of that span, the Mets had an actual major league lineup. How can the Mets win if they do not score runs? The Mets will follow deGrom with the second-best bullpen in baseball (3.57 xFIP), but with an offense like the Mets, the pitchers have to be perfect. It’s hard to be perfect against a tough Braves lineup.

Final Score: Braves 3, Mets 2

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $50K Sunday Night Showdown [$10K to 1st] (ATL vs NYM)

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