Each of my best MLB bets for Monday on DraftKings Sportsbook includes a West Coast team, one of which features a pair of ground-ball pitchers going toe-to-toe at Coors Field.
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Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
Tyler Glasnow over 7.5 strikeouts +120
I did a double take when I saw this one. Glasnow enters this matchup vs. the Angels with a 13.4 K/9, hitting the over on Monday’s strikeout prop four times in six starts.
So, why is this so low? The Angels having one of the lower strikeout rates against right-handed pitching in 2021 might have something to do with it. Yet, right-handed starters like Ross Stripling (five K’s in five innings) and Brad Keller (five K’s in 5.2 innings) were right around a strikeout per inning in their starts vs. the Angels this season. Jordan Lyles was even in the same range his first time vs. Los Angeles (five K’s in six innings). Stripling is the only one of these three who has a K/9 of 9.0 or better this season (9.9).
Not only does Glasnow have a significantly better K/9 than each of those starters, he has also tossed six or more innings in all but one of his six 2021 starts and has the fifth-best strikeout rate in the game (39.2%). This one isn’t complicated.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
Editor’s note: Tonight’s game between the Cubs and Dodgers has been postponed due to inclement weather.
Kyle Hendricks over 5.5 hits allowed -125
Luckily for Hendricks, he won’t have to see the Braves again this season. Ranked third in team wOBA, third in team OPS and second in ISO against right-handed pitching, Atlanta destroyed Hendricks in their two meetings this season. The Chicago starter mixed in a strong outing between his rough games vs. the Braves, but he even gave up six hits in that start.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, the Dodgers have the second-highest wOBA, second-best OPS and fourth-highest ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Maybe Hendricks keeps the run count low in this one — though that seems optimistic — but even if he does, he’ll have to do so while scattering a bunch of hits.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Tonight’s Giants-Rockies game has been postponed due to weather.
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Under 9.5 total runs -105
Taking the under at Coors Field is a guarantee for a wild night, but we’re looking at two starters who are among the best in the game at inducing ground out. Home runes should be a bit harder to come by than usual.
Aaron Sanchez’s fastball isn’t coming in as hot as it used to. However, he’s still generating swinging strikes right around his career average — which isn’t that high — and hitters aren’t doing much with his pitches out of the zone that they go after. The stat I like most, though, brings us back to the original point. His ground-ball percentage is at a ridiculous 60.3%, a number he hasn’t sniffed since 2015.
As for German Marquez, he’s only given up one home run in 23 innings at Coors this season. Opposing hitters have a .628 OPS against Marquez at Coors this season, and his overall ground-ball percentage (57.5%) is the highest it’s been since he first broke into the big leagues and among the best in the game in 2021.
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