Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets, $9,600
Anytime Lillard is priced under $10,000 this postseason, you are locking him in all your lineups. Thus far in this opening-round series against Denver, Lillard has seen at least 40 minutes in every contest, helping him score 60.2 DKFP per game.
With Lillard and the Blazers attempting to tie this series at two games instead of going down 1-3 before heading back to Denver, I’m expecting Lillard to score nothing less than 50 DKFP on Saturday.
Other Options: Ja Morant ($8,300), Ben Simmons ($7,600)
Facundo Campazzo, Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trailblazers, $6,000
Opposite Lillard, Campazzo is also an appealing value from this healthy 227.5 point O/U game total on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nuggets went up 2-1 in this best of seven on Thursday night and Campazzo was a huge factor in the win, recording 38.5 DKFP across 32 minutes. Filling in for the injured Jamal Murray (out, knee), Campazzo has exceeded 30 DKFP in six of his past 10 games as the Nuggets’ starting point guard.
For the Game 3 victory on Thursday, Campazzo was only owned by 7.9% of the field in DraftKings’ 500K Shootaround GPP, and his ownership should remain decently depressed Saturday, considering guard is the deepest position of the slate.
Other Options: Mike Conley ($6,800), Goran Dragic ($5,400), Ish Smith ($4,800, if Russell Westbrook is out)
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Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards vs. Philadelphia 76ers, $9,000
As it has been the case all season, the Sixers just don’t have an answer for Beal. Even in the blowout loss on Wednesday, Beal still posted 44.5 DKFP, bringing his season average against the Sixers up to 49.5 DKFP per game. Now, Saturday night presents a win-or-go-home situation for Washington, as they trail three games to none.
Barring another huge blowout, which seems unlikely with Philadelphia only favored by six points on DraftKings Sportsbook, Beal is going to log over 40 minutes tonight and destroy this price tag.
Other Options: Jrue Holiday ($7,500), CJ McCollum ($7,300)
Bryn Forbes, Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat, $3,600
In the wake of the brutal news that Donte DiVincenzo (foot) will miss the remainder of the playoffs, Forbes should take his place in the Bucks’ starting lineup. With DiVincenzo unavailable for the second half Thursday night, Forbes started at shooting guard and finished with 18.25 DKFP. Saturday’s Game 4 will be the fifth contest DiVincenzo has missed this season, and when the 24-year-old has been inactive, Forbes has generated 23.4 DKFP with 27 minutes per game.
For these short playoff slates, it’s rare to get a starter this cheap, and while he will be popular, Forbes is too good of value to pass up at $3,600.
Other Options: Monte Morris ($4,500), Austin Rivers ($4,300)
Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks, $8,600
In a do-or-die situation on his home floor, Butler needs to be one of your core plays tonight, despite the lackluster results so far in this series. Trailing 0-3, Erik Spoelstra should let Butler play close to this entire game and based on sheer volume alone, he should beat his current price point.
If we look at all the tilts that Butler has gone over 40 minutes this year, he is averaging 50.3 DKFP per game.
Other Options: Khris Middleton ($7,800)
Danny Green, Philadelphia 76ers vs. Washington Wizards, $4,300
Green only scored 14.5 DKFP in Game 2 but tallied 23.5 DKFP in Game 1. The difference between these two was that the first contest of this series was competitive, while the second was a blowout. The Sixers are only six-point favorites tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook, so there is surely optimism that we will see a close tilt in Game 3, and that is a risk we need to embrace with Green this cheap.
Whenever the Sixers have competed in a single-digit spread this season, Green has contributed 22 DKFP per game.
Other Options: Dillon Brooks ($6,500), Norman Powell ($5,500)
Tobias Harris, Philadelphia 76ers vs. Washington Wizards, $7,100
Harris has been a beast against the Wizards, scoring 42.6 DKFP per game so far in this opening-round series. Albeit a two-game sample, but Harris’ usage has been up to 31.6%, which is a large jump from his usual 24.6% rate from the regular season.
Playing at a faster speed against this Washington club that ranked first in pace this season is optimal for Harris, and he has flourished in high-scoring environments like Vegas is projecting for Game 3. Via DraftKings Sportsbook, this matchup’s total sits at 227.5 points, and Harris has produced 41.5 DKFP per game in totals north of 225 this season.
Other Options: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700), Michael Porter Jr. ($7,200)
Carmelo Anthony, Portland Trailblazers vs. Denver Nuggets, $4,100
Anthony’s floor isn’t the safest, but he brings much better upside than most of the values available in this price range. In two of these first three games vs. the Nuggets, the former All-Star has recorded at least 23 DKFP against his former team, and in total, Anthony is amassing 21.5 DKFP per game in six matchups with Denver this season.
The Blazers need his scoring off the bench if they want to even this series tonight, and I have no issues throwing a dart with Anthony in GPPs at this price.
Other Options: Kyle Anderson ($6,100), Royce O’Neale ($4,600), Paul Millsap ($3,800)
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers vs. Washington Wizards, $9,800
Embiid struggled with foul trouble in Game 1 and then Game 2 was an easy blowout win for the Sixers, cutting his playing time short. Now heading on the road to Washington for Game 3, we should see a much better scenario for Embiid to get back to his usual 35-40 minutes in a tight contest throughout.
Specifically, when the center has been a part of a single-digit spread and total above 225 points, Embiid has responded with 54 DKFP per game this season. Relative to his massive ceiling, this a very friendly price for the superstar, and there is a chance that most DFS players look to pay up elsewhere considering his ugly game log.
Other Options: Nikola Jokic ($10,400), Rudy Gobert ($7,700), Bam Adebayo ($7,400)
Daniel Gafford, Washington Wizards vs. Philadelphia 76ers, $4,200
I wouldn’t trust him in cash games, but for GPPs, Gafford makes a ton of sense at this low cost. Since the start of the play-in tournament, the center has scored over 23.25 DKFP in all four games, including a 43.75 DKFP outburst against the Pacers. Fantasy-wise, Gafford brings the best upside from the Wizards’ frontcourt, and another positive showing is absolutely possible with the Wizards back at home.
His production is 4.3 DKFP higher on his home floor compared to when on the road this season, and as a reserve, Gafford is almost guaranteed to come with low ownership.
Other Options: Jusuf Nurkic ($6,900), Neman Bjelica ($3,300, if starting)
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