Inclement weather is going to impact some games on Friday, but there are still quite a few good MLB bets to make on DraftKings Sportsbook.
If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
Gerrit Cole over 9.5 strikeouts -125
The Tigers aren’t exactly a good hitting team, and they’re going up against one of the best pitchers in baseball on Friday. So, there’s no reason to wonder whether or not Cole will go deep in this game.
Not that the Yankees right-hander necessarily needs to go seven or eight innings in order to hit the over on his K prop Friday. Detroit has the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in all of baseball.
Cole also ranks among the top 10 in swinging strike rate, and he is getting hitters to chase pitches out of the zone frequently — hitters also miss his offerings out of the zone at a high rate. That’s not great news for a Tigers team that chases out of the zone more than most and misses those pitches more than almost everyone.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Walker Buehler over 7.5 Strikeouts -110
Buehler only struck out five when he faced the Giants last time out, but I can’t ignore the fact San Francisco has the highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in all of baseball.
While Buehler’s swinging strike rate (12.6%) and his ability to get hitters to swing and miss at pitches out of the zone help with this pick, I also know the Dodgers need to get as much as they can out of him on Friday after Thursday’s bullpen day. That doesn’t mean the Los Angeles right-hander will throw 120 pitches, but it’ll take an uncharacteristic meltdown for him to come out before the 100-pitch mark.
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Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
Matt Harvey over 5.5 hits allowed -105
We saw Harvey get tattooed throughout his 1 2/3-inning outing only two starts ago, in which he gave up seven hits. Brandon Hyde will try to get as much as he can out of Harvey, good or bad — especially after quite a few Baltimore relievers threw on Thursday.
But that start was an outlier in a sense. It was the first time Harvey failed to make it through four innings this season. However, it was the second of three consecutive starts in which Harvey surrendered seven or more hits.
Going up against a White Sox team that’s 10th in OPS and wOBA against right-handed pitching, despite their low ISO, Harvey will give up plenty of hits no matter how long his start is on Friday.
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians
First Five Innings Blue Jays -0.5 -130
We’ve got a seasoned veteran going up against a 25-year-old right-hander, Eli Morgan, who’s making his MLB debut. Not exactly a hard decision to back Hyun Jin Ryu and the Toronto offense in this one.
The Blue Jays have been one of the toughest teams on right-handed pitching, ranking in the top five in wOBA, ISO and OPS against right-handed pitchers. Cleveland’s offense, on the other hand, has not fared well against left-handed pitching, ranked 24th in OPS and 25th in wOBA against left-handers.
Morgan has also had a bit of a command issue (eight walks in 13 2/3 minor league innings this season). Toronto doesn’t walk much against right-handed pitchers (25th in walk rate), but Morgan’s control issues can manifest into other problems.
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