We endured an ugly 1-2 record last week in article plays; however, for the season as a whole, we’re still sitting pretty at 12-8. Let’s try to notch a few more points in the win column before turning the calendar to June, shall we?
With a full-day of action on the diamond, here are my three favorite MLB bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
James Kaprielian OV 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)
There are few teams in baseball as susceptible to striking out as the Mariners. In fact, coming into Wednesday afternoon’s game versus James Kaprielian and the Athletics, Seattle is leading the league in both swinging strike rate (13.5%) and called strike plus swinging strike rate (30.7%) in the month of May. That should be more than enough of an advantage for Kaprielian, who has managed to strikeout 15 opponents across his first 10.2 innings this season. The former top prospect is armed with an above-average fastball and slider, a combination he’s used to register an eye-popping 33.3% strikeout rate in 2021. Is the sample size small? Surely. But the Mariners woes are more than enough to make up for Kaprielian’s lack of a track record.
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
Red Sox ML (-121)
The Braves come into tonight’s contest with the Red Sox having won their last four games and in possession of the league’s best ISO (.212) in the month of May. So, in a way, I can sort of understand why Boston isn’t listed as a massive favorite at home. However, at the same time, a lot of the positive elements of Atlanta are immediately undone by the presence of Drew Smyly. The left-hander has been terrible in 2021. In fact, of the 140 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 30.0 innings, Smyly’s 6.36 FIP and his 2.68 HR/9 are the second-highest marks in the grouping. To be blunt, he’s continuously been hit hard and the Red Sox just happen to be 7-2 in their last nine matchups with a left-handed opponent. Then there’s Nick Pivetta. While it does feel like we’re all collectively waiting for the RHP’s implosion, Pivetta has backed up his 3.59 ERA with a 3.44 FIP. He’s walked only seven opponents in his past four outings. He’s been perfectly fine. Considering both these squads can hit, the differentiating factor here should be pitching, and it’s pretty lopsided in Boston’s favor.
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San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
Padres ML (-134)
Another game, another bet weighted in the quality of starting pitching. Though Chris Paddack still hasn’t quite re-found his form from his rookie season, there have been some encouraging signs of late. Not only is Paddack pitching to a 3.25 FIP over his first eight outings of 2021, but he’s also registered a swinging strike rate of at least 15.0% in two of his most recent three starts. On the other side of the ledger, we find Eric Lauer, who was recalled on Tuesday night in anticipation of making this start. I won’t lie, I did prefer it when Adrian Houser was Milwaukee’s expected starter, but it’s not like I fear Lauer in any way, either. The left-hander has thrown 27.0 innings going back to the beginning of 2020, and in that frame of time, Lauer sports an inflated 7.00 ERA, due mostly to the fact that he’s allowed opponents to crush 2.3 home runs per nine. In general, San Diego has had its issues hitting LHPs so far this season, though those splits have started to come around with the scorching bat of Fernando Tatis Jr. and the return of Wil Myers from the IL. The Padres have won 10 of their past 11 games, too. That seems relevant.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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