Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets, $9,500
Lillard was incredible Saturday night, leading the Blazers to the Game 1 victory over Denver, posting a double-double worth 59 DKFP. Unsurprisingly, the All-Star logged a team-high 40 minutes and posted a large 35.4% usage rate. With the Nuggets only 1.5-point favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook tonight, the huge volume will absolutely continue for Lillard in Game 2. The O/U game total for this tilt is also up to 227 points, and when the spread has been under five and the total has been 225 points or greater this season, Lillard has produced 50 DKFP per game.
The point guard has topped 50 DKFP in nine of his last 11 starts and is a very difficult fade for this two-game playoff slate.
Other Options: C.J. McCollum ($7,300)
Goran Dragic, Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks, $5,000
Just like they did for their 2020 run to the NBA Finals, we saw the Heat heavily rely on Dragic over Kendrick Nunn in Saturday’s Game 1 against the Bucks. The veteran received 34.4 minutes of work off the bench, lifting him to 31.5 DKFP, while Nunn only finished with 22.7 minutes. This marked Dragic’s second-highest minute total of the season, and the Slovenian is now averaging 32.7 minutes per game for the playoffs over the past two years.
Dragic is amassing 32.6 DKFP per game when he has surpassed 30 minutes this season, and his $5,000 price tag simply doesn’t reflect the point guard’s role during the postseason.
Other Options: Facundo Campazzo ($5,700)
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Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat, $7,700
Holiday had a very productive outing Saturday vs. the Heat, recording a 20-point, 11-rebound double-double in 42 minutes. Holiday is now contributing 41.2 DKFP per game over his past 10 and is supplying 42.7 DKFP per game across four matchups with Miami this season.
Additionally, after Saturday’s nail-biter, the spread is only 4.5-points in favor of the Bucks for Game 2, via DraftKings Sportsbook. Holiday has responded with 43.25 DKFP per game when the spread has been under five points this year, and he is my favorite high-end value at shooting guard tonight.
Other Options: Khris Middleton ($8,200)
Donte DiVincenzo, Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat, $4,900
DiVincenzo finished with 24.5 DKFP across a season-high 37.3 minutes in the Game 1 win on Saturday. This number was slightly inflated due to this tilt going to overtime, but DiVincenzo still obtained 32.3 regulation minutes, which is a notable upgrade from his 27.4 minute average for the season. With the Bucks using a tighter rotation, DiVincenzo should see over 30 minutes every night during the playoffs, which is more than enough time for him to smash value at this modest $4,900 price tag.
The combo guard is providing 28.7 DKFP when he has eclipsed the 30-minute mark this season, and DiVincenzo has played very well against Miami this year, scoring 28.4 DKFP per game in the four matchups between these East rivals.
Other Options: Austin Rivers ($3,800), Anfernee Simons ($3,300)
Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers, $7,000
The Nuggets dropped Game 1 to Portland on Saturday night, but Porter Jr. had a strong outing, posting 39.75 DKFP in 37 minutes. The forward was one rebound shy of reaching the double-double bonus, and inexcusably, Porter’s price has been cut $1,200 since this start. This is the cheapest the 22-year-old has been in 18 games, and we must take advantage of this pricing error for Monday’s short slate.
Porter Jr. has supplied 37.5 DKFP per game since Jamal Murray went down with the torn ACL, and I highly doubt we see him this cheap again this season.
Other Options: Jimmy Butler ($8,500)
Aaron Gordon, Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trailblazers, $5,200
I prefer paying up for either Porter Jr. or Butler tonight at small forward, but Gordon is the best cheap option if you choose to save at the thin position. In his playoff debut as a Nugget on Saturday, the athletic forward collected 30 DKFP against the Blazers and is now generating 30.1 DKFP per game in his past three starts.
Only the Kings sported a worse defensive rating than Portland during the regular season, and Gordon has produced 29 DKFP per game against this soft defense in two meetings since joining the Nuggets.
Other Options: Norman Powell ($5,400)
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat, $10,800
Antetokounmpo recorded 61 DKFP in Saturday’s victory over Miami, and his salary is still under $11,000, making the two-time MVP a no-brainer for Monday night. He garnered 40 regulation minutes in Game 1 and there’s no reason to suggest Antetokounmpo will see anything less in Game 2, barring an unlikely blowout.
The superstar is averaging 60.8 DKFP per game in the past 10 in which he has logged at least 35 minutes, and Antetokounmpo should effortlessly exceed five-times value this evening.
Other Options: None
Trevor Ariza, Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks, $4,800
Ariza has plenty of playoff experience on his resume, and the veteran didn’t disappoint in his first playoff game with the Heat on Saturday, putting up 29 DKFP against the Bucks. At his salary for Monday night, Ariza needs 24 DKFP to meet five-times value, which is something he has done in six of his past 10.
He isn’t the most exciting play, but Ariza is one of the safest cheap forward values on the slate with only two games to attack tonight.
Other Options: Carmelo Anthony ($4,300), Paul Millsap ($3,600)
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trailblazers, $10,700
The Nuggets can’t afford to go down 0-2 on their home floor, and Jokic should put the team on his back Monday night. In his past 10, the MVP frontrunner has produced 55 DKFP per game and Jokic has scored 3.3 more DKFP per game at home this season, compared to when the Nuggets are on the road.
In this must-win situation, the center should handle right around 40 minutes and is an extremely strong bet for over 60 DKFP against this vulnerable Blazers defense.
Other Options: Bam Adebayo ($8,000)
Jusuf Nurkic, Portland Trailblazers vs. Denver Nuggets, $6,700
Along with Lillard, Nurkic was tremendous in the Game 1 victory, finishing with 42 DKFP against the Nuggets. Now, for some odd reason, the big man’s salary has decreased $500 since this impressive effort. There really is no logic behind this price drop for Nurkic, but I am not complaining and will be heavily investing in the center at this discount price.
The 26-year-old has been excellent with 37 DKFP per game in his 11 starts this month, and the Nuggets have had no answer for Nurkic this season, with him exposing them for 38 DKFP per game in three matchups.
Other Options: Brook Lopez ($4,600)
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