We’ve made it to Sunday and we’ve got a loaded slate to bet. I think I might love every game on the card. Because it’d be impossible to write up 10 bets, I’ve narrowed it down to three. Here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All Freddy Peralta does is shove. Everyone is starting to talk about the fact that no one talks about Peralta, and frankly, I’d like them to put a lid on it so his greatness remains a secret. I mean, seriously, are we making him a -117 favorite over Luis Castillo?
Peralta is ninth among all pitchers with a .231 xwOBA and his .137 expected batting average ranks fourth in the league. He also owns the fourth-best strikeout rate among starters (excluding the versatile Michael Kopech), right after Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole and his teammate Corbin Burnes.
Simply put, he’s been on fire, which is a lot more than you can say about the Reds’ offense, which has looked like a shell of itself lately. Speaking of, yikes, Luis Castillo continues to get knocked around to the tune of a 7.44 ERA. His strikeouts are way down, and it appears his decline is here. I’m going to take the best pitcher every day, and twice on Sunday. Since it’s Sunday, I’d recommend the First Five and the Moneyline.
The Pirates’ offense has disappointed me in recent games, as has their supposedly good pitchers, but I don’t think the latter will be an issue on Sunday. J.T. Brubaker is legitimately good, flashing above-average strikeout and walk rates and pitching to a 3.27 ERA. There’s room for a bit of regression here with Brubaker, but he’s proven enough over the past two seasons to show he’s more than capable of handling a Braves offense that, other than one 20-run outburst, has struggled with strikeouts and contact lately.
On the other side of this total, I touched on the disappointment of the Pirates over the past two days but I’m definitely not banking on more than a handful of runs here against the talented Max Fried, who seemed to be right back to himself in his last outing after a stint on the injured list. This should cash comfortably.
That’s right, a little Sunday Night Baseball action to finish off the weekend. I’m targeting this one because I’m very interested in fading Zach Davies, who has been one of the luckiest pitchers over the past few seasons — or at the very least, one of the best at wiggling out of trouble.
Against recent opponents like Pittsburgh and Cleveland that didn’t prove too difficult a task, but you saw against Washington what can happen when this guy toes the rubber. He’s allowing a ton of hits, and a ridiculously bad .315 expected batting average to go along with a 7.02 xERA. The Cardinals’ capable lineup, which is starting to hit, should be up to the task here at home against Davies, and it’s not even worth questioning whether or not Adam Wainwright, who’s been turning back the clock this season, will succeed. Take St. Louis and don’t look back.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.