Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Warriors vs. Grizzlies Showdown on May 21

On Friday night, we get the Western Conference play-in game between Memphis and Golden State. The Memphis Grizzlies were 38-34 on the season and defeated the Spurs on Wednesday in the opening play-in game. The Golden State Warriors were 39-33 on the season and lost to the Lakers on Wednesday. Memphis was 20-16 on the road during the regular season, while Golden State was 25-11 at home. This is an interesting matchup because both teams are top 10 in pace and defensive efficiency. They met three times during the regular season—a back-to-back in mid-March and this past Sunday. Stephen Curry did not play in the first two meetings, and he led the Warriors to a 113-101 victory at home in the game he played. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Warriors favored by 4.5 points with the O/U at 221.5.

Let’s break down this Showdown contest on DraftKings.

SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Stephen Curry ($17,100 CP) - Curry is the alpha and omega of this Warriors team. The usage rate was 34.6% during the regular season, but over the last 10 games, it’s been above 40% in seven of those contests. If the Warriors are going to advance, Curry is going to have to be extra spicy today. When these teams met on Sunday, he played 40 minutes, had a usage rate of 50%, attempted 36 shots, and finished with a line of 46 points, nine three-pointers, seven rebounds, nine assists, one steal, and one block, which translated to 73.25 DKFP. Who does that? Curry has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate and will likely put up the most raw points.

Jonas Valanciunas ($15,000 CP) - Valanciunas had the third-most double-doubles during the regular season. He also only averaged around 28 minutes per game, which was a shame because he averaged 1.33 DKFP per minute. Over the last eight games of the regular season, though, he went over 30 minutes six times and played a whopping 38 minutes in Wednesday’s win over the Spurs. In that time, all he did was score 23 points, grab 23 rebounds, and block three shots. That translated to six games above 40 DKFP with three 50-burgers. It’s money time now, so Valanciunas will get as many minutes as he can handle. During the regular season, the Warriors were one of the best at limiting centers, as they neutralized the FPPM by 15.61% below league average, but Valanciunas put up 53.5 DKFP against them on Sunday so it will be interesting to see which trend continues. That said, he has the highest floor/ceiling on the Grizzlies and I’m trying to fit both Valanciunas and Curry into the same lineup.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Play-In Finale [$100K to 1st] (MEM vs GSW)

UTIL Plays

Kevon Looney ($4,600) - Looney is my value piece. The usage rate is low and he’s only scored in double figures three times this season. That said, he’s going to play a ton of minutes in this one in order to match up with Valanciunas, so he should grab plenty of rebounds and you’re hoping he gets some cheap buckets and some defensive stats. On Sunday, he played 31 minutes, grabbed 11 rebounds, and put up 23.75 DKFP.

Andrew Wiggins ($8,200) - There are two players I’d choose over Curry and Valanciunas if I wanted leverage. Ja Morant ($9,400) would be one, but he’s expensive. Wiggins is the other. Morant has gone for at least 60 DKFP four times this season with a high of 72.5. Wiggins has a high of 66 DKFP on the season. The ceilings are there for both players but the floors are obviously low. Wiggins confounds because there are times when he looks like Michael Jordan while other times he’s hanging out on the sideline chatting with Michael B. Jordan. He goes from engaged to aloof faster than the price of crypto. That said, he’s been playing 38 minutes per game, garners a 23% usage rate, and has the ability to stuff the stat sheet.

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,200) - Over the last two games, Jackson has played 31 minutes in each contest. Prior to that, he was languishing in the mid-to-high 20s. Now, it’s been 12 games since he returned from injury, so the Grizzlies were likely being cautious. It’s win or go home now, though, so 30-plus minutes should be there once again. Jackson can do it all - shoot from downtown, grab rebounds, and be a force on the defensive end. One of the big bugaboos is his penchant for fouling. In 12 games, he’s finished with five fouls in six contests. If he can stay healthy and out of foul trouble, Jackson should feast as he averages 1.22 DKFP per minute. On Sunday against the Warriors, he went for 35.75 DKFP.

Fades

Dillon Brooks ($11,400 CP, $7,600) - The volume is always there for Brooks. Over the last five games, he’s attempted over 20 shots in four of those contests. The shooting efficiency is always a concern, though. On the season, he’s converting 42% of his attempts. The Warriors are fifth in defensive efficiency and neutralize the FPPM to shooting guards by 4.06% below the league average. In three games against the Warriors this season, Brooks shot 2-for-10, 4-for-16, and 6-for-14 from the field. Could he get hot? Sure, he always has that capacity but I’ll side with the fade in this one.

HAMMER THE OVER

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THE OUTCOME

For full transparency, I’ve been absolutely horrible at predicting outcomes, so you may want to go Costanza on me. If that doesn’t work, then Costanza the Costanza.

Outside of a terrible third quarter for the Warriors in which they turned the ball over too many times, they were giving the Lakers the business. The Warriors are tough at home, play good defense, and have the best player on the floor. They are also a more “grizzled” playoff team so that experience spread is another advantage for them.

Final Score: Golden State 116, Memphis 105

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Play-In Finale [$100K to 1st] (MEM vs GSW)

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