Happy Thursday! We’ve got a fun miniature night slate on the diamond as we approach the weekend, complete with some exciting divisional rivalries across the league. I’ve got my eye on quite a few bets today, but have narrowed it down to three. With that in mind, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
When considering if two teams are going to combine for nine or more runs, you must first answer the question of whether one team can hit. Can the Marlins hit? The answer to that is most certainly no, they can’t. Now, what about the Phillies, can they hit? Well, not really, and against Sandy Alcantara that answer should be a definitive no.
This Philadelphia side has endured some tough injuries lately, and the latest big position player to go down is J.T. Realmuto, who may sit again here. Alec Bohm has struggled, Rhys Hoskins has turned into a whiff machine and Bryce Harper has fallen off the MVP pace he was on early. Against Alcantara and his 2.92 expected ERA, I don’t see the Phillies’ bats going off here, particularly given the fact that he’s allowed just four barrels in nine starts and Philly has relied on the home run a lot in 2021.
On the other hand, the Marlins rank down near the bottom in wRC+ this season and over the past two weeks that hasn’t changed, with the fish checking in 26th. Vince Velasquez is a high-strikeout pitcher, and faces a team striking out at the second-highest clip in the last two weeks. You do the math here.
It’s never a bad idea to take the Red Sox against a lefty, a split in which they’ve posted a 112 wRC+ to rank seventh in the big leagues. It’s particularly wise when that lefty is Steven Matz, who has been a shell of the pitcher that started off the 2021 season red-hot. He’s coming off a decent showing against the aforementioned Phillies, who have struggled at the dish, but that outing saw him match a season high with three walks and allowed four hits over five scoreless frames. Boston is striking out at the third-lowest clip against left-handed pitchers and shouldn’t afford Matz the nine strikeouts that the Phillies did, which helped him get out of trouble.
Nick Pivetta has been pretty solid this season, and I’d give him the slight edge over Matz given his ability to consistently turn in above-average starts. There’s a lot of value here on the underdogs, that’s for sure.
This one should be pretty academic, even if the Dodgers opt for a bullpen game here against Arizona. The injury list is long for the Diamondbacks — they are now without Asdrubal Cabrera, Carson Kelly, Christian Walker and Kole Calhoun — and as a result their wRC+ over the past week is just 36. Yikes.
The runs should be hard to come by here for a team struggling to field big league hitters, and on the other side Merrill Kelly should yield quite a few to a streaking Dodgers offense which has been powered by Gavin Lux and Max Muncy in recent games. Kelly’s strikeout numbers have plummeted, which is never good news when you’re facing a team that makes as much hard contact as the Dodgers. This one should be over early.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.