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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for May 18

Steve Buchanan breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Lots of games today. So we have lots of info. Sweet.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.

DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Blake Snell, $8,900, San Diego Padres (-235) vs. Colorado Rockies (+190)— It’s a bit surprising to see Snell as the big favorite on a 14-game slate because quite frankly, his start to his Padres career has been forgettable. His command has been incredibly bad and has a 6.29 BB/9. Since 2018, Snell hasn’t been higher than 3.3, so this is nearly double where he’s been over that span. His strikeout numbers are still on pace with what we’re used too but with the amount of men he’s putting on base, it’s been a struggle for one of their huge offseason acquisitions.

Luckily for him, he faces a Rockies team that is one of the most impatient and free swinging in the league. The overall 8.2% BB% and and 8.4% specifically against lefties are some of the lowest in the league. The Rockies road numbers are just downright putrid as they sport a 65 wRC+, a .265 wOBA and a .091 ISO. This SHOULD be a really good bounce-back start for Snell, who has a combined 22.5 DKFP in has last two starts, including 14.2 against the Rockies his last time out. That game WAS at Coors Field and he struck out seven but only went four innings. I’m thinking, hoping, wondering if he can have a better result this time around in San Diego, where he’s been much more efficient.

Other notable favorite: Brandon Woodruff ($10,200; -180) vs. Kansas City Royals

Highest Projected Total

Boston Red Sox (+120; 4.5 runs) at Toronto Blue Jays (-139; 4.5 runs) 9 runs — Amazingly, with 14 games on the slate, only two have an over/under of at least nine runs. This game has a line of -109 on the over, while the Rays and Orioles, which also has a total of nine, is at even money. I am a bit surprised the Red Sox are underdogs in this one and for what it’s worth, they’re 9-3 on the moneyline in that scenario this season.

As for the total, both teams are starting lefties and both teams hit them well. The Red Sox in particular have a 118 wRC+ with a .344 wOBA and a .172 ISO. When they faced Hyun-Jin Ryu ($8,600) earlier this season, they tagged him for four runs on eight hits though five innings. The Blue Jays didn’t hit Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,800) hard but they did end up winning the game 4-2. While both of these teams struggle with the over, going a combined 36-43-2, I still like the over on this one.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]

Weather Notes

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins - Rain will be in the area and it’s looking likely that this will at least have a late start. A postponement isn’t out of the question either. Keep an eye on this one.

Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs - Light rain all throughout the evening. Not ideal for hitting.

Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals - Very likely this game starts in a delay but once it clears, the game shouldn’t have any issue playing.

Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Mike Foltynewicz, .437, 7.51
Jameson Taillon, .403, 5.69
Justin Dunn, .376, 8.28

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Blake Snell, .147, 1.33
Sean Manaea, .162, 2.83
Austin Gomber, .169, 2.90

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Patrick Corbin, .397, 7.68
Zach Davies, .389, 4.39
Blake Snell, .375, 5.59

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Lance Lynn, .190, 1.65
Cristian Javier, .215, 2.35
Brandon Woodruff, .221, 3.09

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins, $10,000 — Let me be the first to say, I have yet to catch Wheeler on one of his good outings this season. So take that narrative as you will. I’m hoping I can change my own personal fortunes tonight as he faces a very strikeout prone Marlins team. They have the fifth-highest K% in the league against righties at 26.3% to go with their poor offensive numbers of a .287 wOBA, a .128 ISO and an 84 wRC+. Wheeler has also been much better at home, where the Phillies offense also performs dramatically better. The stars feel to align for a start worth of the $10K salary for Wheeler but then again, I’ve felt this way multiple times and didn’t get the desired results. Then again, who the hell am I?

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays $5,800 — I absolutely want a piece of this game with the two lefties facing each other. Bogaerts is the man I’d prefer out of everyone with his extremely good numbers against lefties. He enters this game with a .432 wOBA, a .261 ISO and a 177 wRC+ against lefties. He faces off against Ryu, who I mentioned struggled in his start against the Red Sox earlier this season. This whole Red Sox lineup performs well against lefties but Bogaerts at the heart of it should be worth paying up for.

Save Big by Drafting

Josh Bell, Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs, $3,300 — This is more of a salary play than anything, as Bell is finally starting to show some signs of life at the plate. Over his last five games, he’s averaging 10.1 DKFP, which includes a double, a home run and three RBI. Tonight, he’s expected to face off against Zach Davies ($7,000) who relies on contact for outs and continues to see his strikeout numbers falter. I think it’s fair to say that Bell has been having some bad luck this season, as someone who has a 53% hard-hit rate and a 10% barrel rate is certainly due for a turnaround. We might be seeing that just now.

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