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We’ve got a matchup between two Western Conference teams who are at opposite ends of the spectrum. The New Orleans Pelicans are 31-39 (11th in the Western Conference) on the season and 5-5 in their last 10 games. They were officially eliminated from the playoffs after their loss to the Mavericks on Wednesday. The Golden State Warriors are 37-33 (8th in the Western Conference) on the season and have won seven of their last 10. New Orleans is 13-22 on the road, while Golden State is 23-11 at home.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Warriors favored by 2.5 points with the O/U at 225. There are a lot of injuries that could have a huge effect on this game. Stephen Curry is questionable with a bruised tailbone. With the spread at 2.5 points, it seems likely that Curry will sit this one out. Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Mychal Mulder are all questionable as well. Damion Lee and Kelly Oubre Jr. have already been ruled out. For the Pelicans, Zion Williamson, Josh Hart, and Lonzo Ball are all out. Steven Adams and Brandon Ingram are questionable. Good times. I’m going to assume they are all out.
Let’s break down this Showdown contest on DraftKings.
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Eric Bledsoe ($10,200 CP) - Bledsoe has been so bad this season. He’s averaging 0.82 DKFP per minute on the season. He’s scored fewer than 20 DKFP 23 times this season with three single-digit games. With all the injuries, though, Bledsoe becomes the de facto man. He’s scored at least 24 DKFP in each of the last seven games with a high of 52. The usage rate has been over 25% in each of the last three games. It’s gross but sometimes you just have to follow the usage regardless of the player.
Jordan Poole ($5,700 CP) - I’m working off the assumption that Stephen Curry ($15,000 CP) doesn’t play. Curry has missed eight games this season. Poole got the start for Curry in six of those games. The only reason he didn’t start in the other two was that he was out himself. In those six starts, the usage rate was 20%, 24%, 27%, 25%, 22%, and 28%. He contributed 34, 42, 26, 28.75, 21, and 16 DKFP over that span. On the season, Poole averages 0.96 DKFP per minute. Now, even if Curry does play, this play is not dead as he’s played 21 and 19 minutes in the last two games and still put up 26.5 and 23.25 DKFP. At this price, the upside is too high.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $100K Fadeaway [$25K to 1st] (NOP vs GSW)
UTIL Plays
Juan Toscano-Anderson ($4,800) - Over the last seven games, Toscano-Anderson has averaged 30.9 minutes, 6.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.3 blocks. He’s a low usage player so the shot attempts and points haven’t been voluminous, but he contributes in every category, which provides a high floor. The DKFP production over that span has been 36, 28.75, 20, 29.75, 36.25, 29.25, and 24.25. Now, he’s benefitted from the absence of Eric Paschall ($1,000), who could return to action today. Paschall likely won’t get a huge workload in his first game back and Draymond Green ($7,800) is questionable, so 30 minutes of playing time look to be the viable outcome.
Naji Marshall ($5,200) - Marshall has started the last four games for Brandon Ingram ($8,200) and averaged 28.6 minutes and 11.5 field goal attempts. He’s put up 21.75, 17.75, 38.25, and 22.5 DKFP. The usage rate has been a respectable 23%, 20%, 18%, and 15%. I don’t see why the Pelicans would play Ingram at this point but if they do, then pivot off Marshall.
Kent Bazemore ($5,400) - Bazemore has started the last eight games and averaged 30.2 minutes. Like Toscano-Anderson, he contributes a little something in every category. He thrives in uptempo game environments and this one should be an up-and-down affair as the Pelicans are 8th in pace while the Warriors are 2nd. Bazemore has put up 28.25 and 29.5 DKFP over the last two games.
Fades
In a Showdown first, there will be no fades. All of the top players are either out or questionable. The questionable players are all viable due to the possibility of decreased ownership. All of the lower-priced players are in play because of the cheap price and possible uptick in playing time and usage.
THE OUTCOME
For full transparency, I’ve been absolutely horrible at predicting outcomes, so you may want to go Costanza on me. If that doesn’t work, then Costanza the Costanza.
Even if the big guns for the Warriors sit, I still like the Warriors to squeak out a victory. They are playing at home where they have been very successful, while the Pelicans have struggled on the road. In addition, the Pelicans have nothing to play for.
Final Score: Golden State 103, New Orleans 101
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $100K Fadeaway [$25K to 1st] (NOP vs GSW)
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