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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for May 13

Steve Buchanan breaks down Thursday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Happy Jarred Kelenic Day! Make sure to roster him at the stone minimum of $2,000. If you aren’t doing that, then don’t ever talk to me again.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cristian Javier, $10,000, Houston Astros (-195) vs. Texas Rangers (+165)— After a string of three really strong starts, Javier has hit a bit of a wall as of late. Against the Rays and Blue Jays, Javier has allowed eight runs on eight hits with 12 strikeouts and six walks through 10 1/3 innings. Luckily for him, a matchup against a Rangers team with the second-highest K% against righties at 28.1% could be the trick to get him back on track.

Offensively, the Rangers have actually been solid against righties. They have a .319 wOBA, a .158 ISO and a 107 wRC+, which is ranked 8th in the league. The strikeout upside they allow is what makes it an extremely attractive matchup. Javier has a 30.6% K% and a 12.5% swing-and-miss rate. This is a very, very thin slate for pitching so expect Javier to attract plenty of attention. Of the six starts he’s made, Javier has at least six strikeouts in four of them.

Other notable favorite: Luis Castillo ($6,200; -150) at Colorado Rockies

Highest Projected Total

Cincinnati Reds (-145; 5.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (+125; 4.5 runs) 9 runs — The Reds head to Coors Field to begin a four-game series. Tonight features Luis Castillo ($6,200) going up against Chi Chi Gonzalez ($5,500). As you’d expect, the Reds are favored and are also the top team in the league at hitting the over at 22-11-1, covering by an average of two runs per game. The Rockies still struggle with the over, even with Coors Field as a backdrop, going 18-18-1.

The Reds currently have the second-highest average runs per game mark in the league at 5.2. It’s worth noting, however, that the majority of that offense has come at home and not on the road. The Reds average 6.8 runs per game at home but only 3.5 on the road. Of course, Coors is a whole different animal but the notable difference is worth noting. The bullpen is where a lot of the production against this team has come, as they sport a 4.20 FIP at home this season. Safe to say, the Reds will be an extremely popular stack on this slate.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]

Weather Notes

No weather concerns!

Splits to Start

These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Mike Foltynewicz, .443, 8.01
Luis Castillo, .413, 4.74
Chi Chi Gonzalez, .399, 5.20

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Sean Manaea, .178, 2.93
Zach Plesac, .178, 2.18
Cristian Javier, .330, 4.48

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Merrill Kelly, .344, 3.93
Luis Castillo, .337, 4,36
Rich Hill, .316, 4.58

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Cristian Javier, .213, 2.54
Jameson Taillon, .265, 4.10
Zach Plesac, .294, 4.67

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, $9,300 —You may have noticed T. Rogers is the second most expensive pitcher on the slate tonight. Were you confused? Did you click on his profile? Who is this man, you may have asked. Well, we’re about to formally introduce you.

Rogers has quietly been one of the better pitchers in the league this season. Problem is, he’s on the Marlins so he doesn’t exactly garner much attention. Amongst starters with at least 30 innings pitched, Rogers is ninth in FIP (2.49), 14th in K/9 (11.8) and has one of the lowest HR/9 at 0.47. Now he faces a Diamondbacks team that hovers around league average in offensive categories against righties and a 23.1% K%. Plenty of attention will be on Javier tonight but personally, I’m going with Rogers. His ability to miss bats thus far has been incredible with a 16.5% swing-and-miss rate.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers, $5,200 — Going after Mike Foltynewicz ($6,400) and his struggles against lefties is where I’m going for with my top hitter on this slate. Coming into this game, Folty has a .443 wOBA, an 8.01 FIP and six of the 11 (!) home runs he’s already allowed this season (how is that even possible?). Meanwhile, Alvarez is doing exactly what everyone expected, mashing seven home runs through 30 games. His ISO of .310 against righties is simply filthy and this is not a matchup I want to miss out on. Alvarez enters this game averaging 13.3 DKFP over his last 10 games, which includes two doubles, five home runs and eight RBI.

Save Big by Drafting

Nick Senzel, Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies, $3,700 — This is purely a salary play. Senzel should be hitting leadoff for the Reds, which is a team playing at Coors Field with a 5.5 run projection. Senzel is not going to provide you much power but he’s scored 17 runs in 32 games and has a .339 OBP. You can also use him at either second base or the outfield, giving you a lot of flexibility with building your lineups. For someone that has a prominent spot in the lineup playing at Coors, this is a no-brainer for me.

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