The AT&T Byron Nelson is hosting 16 of the top 50 golfers, and with it, of course, a ton of DraftKings projected roster percentage. The other narrative repeated throughout the industry is rostering golfers with “Texas-ties,” which I’m guilty of doing as well. Still, whatever the case, some marquee players are soaking up a lot of sentiment this week, which is why we’ll need to make some changes on low-rostered gems in each range.
TPC Craig Ranch is a new venue on the PGA TOUR this week, and with a stronger field this week than we’re used to, we don’t have a ton of historical data. People may skew towards a stars-and-scrubs roster construction with more confidence in the expensive players when that’s the case. While this is a sound strategy and one I endorse, it’ll be tough to take down a GPP when rostering a couple of players above $10,000 with how much gravitational pull on ownership they’re getting this week.
Course history, current form, or your favorite golf tout has pumped up the projected DraftKings ownership for individual golfers throughout the week. This article will look at the projected chalk and pivot in each significant salary range when entering lineups in GPPs on DraftKings.
For a full course preview and who I like in the betting market, please refer to the DraftKings Preview and DraftKings Sportsbook articles. Here are the pivots we should be considering this week on DraftKings.
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Projected Popular Golfer: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,200)
Pivot: Hideki Matsuyama ($10,300)
Bryson’s always going to carry roster percentage into any tournament, but especially one that’s in Texas, where he lives, and one that could favor the longer hitters. The issue with Bryson is you’ll have to fork over the second-highest salary and projected roster percentage per FantasyNational.com for someone who gained a massive amount of strokes putting (+7.0) and lost nearly as much with his irons (-5.5). For GPPs, consider the 2021 Masters Tournament champion, Hideki Matsuyama, who’s coming off the best and probably busiest time of his life. This week will be Matsuyama’s first tournament back since the Masters and his first tournament as a major winner. Could he have some Masters hangover? Of course. Still, Matsuyama is projecting to be the lowest-rostered player in this range, with some solid performances when this event was at Trinity Forest, finishing 23rd in 2019 and 16th the previous year.
$8,000 to $10,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Scottie Scheffler ($9,400)
Pivot: Jason Day ($8,900)
Scheffler is projecting to be the highest-rostered golfer this week, which is a tad bit problematic. His game and the “Texas-ties” narrative are lining up perfectly, and even though he’s featured in both the DraftKings Preview and DraftKings Sportsbook articles, consider pivoting some Scottie shares over to Jason Day. Australians have an affinity with Texas golf, and Day’s gained strokes with his irons in back-to-back tournaments. The MC last week and poor putting should keep his projected roster percentage down up until lock, which means we should be able to roster Day in the single-digits this week. The putting needs to improve, but he has one of the best short games on the PGA TOUR, especially on bentgrass greens, ranking 10th in SG: Putting over his previous 24 rounds.
$7,000 to $8,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Doug Ghim ($7,500)
Pivot: Brandt Snedeker ($7,400)
Ghim arguably has one of the most significant gaps between his ball-striking and putting, ranking fourth in SG: Ball-striking and 141st in putting over his previous 24 rounds. Another playing with Texas-ties, Ghim is projected to be the fifth-most rostered golfer this week, per FantasyNational.com. Like Scheffler, Ghim is another player featured in the Preview article but should be someone to consider pivoting some shares off from with the volatility of his game right now and the inherent risk this range holds every week. Snedeker has been playing well recently, finishing 11th at the Valspar and sixth at the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio, where he gained 7.6 strokes with his irons and 2.6 strokes on the greens. Over his previous 12 rounds, Snedeker ranks seventh in SG: Total.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is reidtfowler) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
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