Happy Tuesday! We’ve got a full slate on the diamond to get excited about as we get this week rolling. I’ve got my eye on quite a few bets today, but have narrowed it down to three. With that in mind, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates -124
If you haven’t heard by now, JT Brubaker doesn’t just have a great, beer-inspired name, he’s also got a wicked slider. The righty has generated a whiff rate of at least 36% on the pitch for a second straight season, and has posted a very respectable .244 expected batting average despite a less-than-stellar 38.6% hard-hit rate. All told, his 2.78 ERA has kept the Pirates in every game he’s pitched, and that should be no different here against a slumping Reds offense. Well, a Reds offense that was slumping hard before scoring 14 runs in the first game of the series.
Things shouldn’t go as well with a pitcher like Brubaker on the mound, and with Jeff Hoffman opposing him. Hoffman’s ERA is pushing five runs, and it’s actually two full runs lower than his expected ERA. He’s allowing hard contact at a 48.1% clip, walking everyone, and striking out no one. The Pirates should be able to handle him here, and I like them as a rare favorite.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers -136
Another pitcher I will continue to stan for is Freddy Peralta, who is coming off an inexplicably poor outing against the Phillies where he allowed five runs on four hits and three walks over four innings. He still struck out eight in that game, flashing supreme swing-and-miss stuff, and still boasts a 2.21 xERA, which ranks in the top five percent of all pitchers.
Kwang Hyun Kim, meanwhile, isn’t very good. He hasn’t had the toughest schedule, yet has already allowed seven barrels in about 17 innings pitched. He has the tendency to load up the bases either with walks or consistent contact, and is a ticking time bomb out there on the hill. I think there’s a clear edge for the Brewers in the pitching department here.
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Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Over 7.5 (-106)
I’m not sure what we’re doing here with this line. Both offenses have struggled lately, but both still have talent despite a few big injuries. On top of that, the pitching matchup here couldn’t be less attractive for me if it tried.
I’m still not a Dylan Cease believer, but I suppose with every passing start it makes it tougher to say that. Still, you’d think the Twins can scratch across a few runs off a guy who has struggled with walks over his entire career, and also has been a pretty awful pitcher up until this point in his young career.
The biggest thing here, though, is how bad Kenta Maeda has been. He’s the owner of a 5.02 ERA through six starts, with a strikeout rate that’s plummeted as his splitter and slider have been left up in the zone and been the victims of more contact. Chicago’s biggest Achilles’ heel lately has been strikeouts, and Maeda should have nothing for them in that department. I think this total is a run too low.
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