The Stars went down vs. the Blackhawks yesterday 4-2 but managed to get 39 SOG in the process. The difference in team play here is quite large since Dallas ranks 12th in xGF% (expected goal rate) while Chicago ranks last. With the Stars finally healthy up front, I’d look for another lopsided game in terms of actual chances and would be buying the dip here on these Stars ML odds.
The Oilers and Canadiens have two meetings left before their season series officially ends. Thus far, five of the seven previous matchups have seen the game total end at five goals or less. While Edmonton remains an elite offense, Montreal has scored more than three goals in a game just once in their last 10 contests and ranks just 15th in goals per game. The under here is worth taking given the series has produced lots of low-scoring games thus far.
Top Line Stack
Mark Scheifele ($6,900) — Blake Wheeler ($5,800) — Kyle Connor ($6,900)
The Jets’ top line has shown some signs of life lately with both Scheifele and Wheeler coming into this contest having grabbed three points each in their last two games. The Canucks have now given up three or more goals in each of their last seven games and continue to be one of the worst defensive teams in hockey as they bravely play out the season despite having COVID-19 and injuries ravage their chances this year.
Vancouver ranks last in shots on goals allowed and also has the seventh-worst penalty kill in the league, which sets this Jets’ top line up for success here. Winnipeg sits fourth in the league in power play efficiency, and given the need for some positive momentum, you should expect the Jets to be going hard after it Monday as they try to avoid falling into the fourth seed — which would mean a matchup vs. Toronto in the first round. Look for this line to produce in one of the best matchups on the slate.
Superstar to Target
Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins vs. New York Islanders ($7,400)
Marchand has been all over the scoresheet of late for the Bruins and comes into this game vs. the Isles having landed 12 points in his last 10 games, four in his last two outings alone. The Bruins have averaged around 4.25 goals per game over their last six, so the matchup here shouldn’t scare us off. The Isles can be a tough opponent to score on, but they are prone to stretches of poor play and allowed four goals against in two of their last four starts. Marchand has been performing well when priced this low and is available here again at one of his lowest price points in the past month, despite producing well of late for fantasy purposes. Boston’s top line is worth looking at here for stacking, but Marchand offers the best value and is worth building around, even in the less than ideal match-up.
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Value on Offense
Alex Tuch, Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche ($4,300)
The Golden Knights will likely be without Max Pacioretty (undisclosed) again here, and his absence has opened up a few more opportunities for players like Tuch, who continues to play over 18 minutes a game most nights and gets ample power play exposure. This game has a lot of importance attached to it in terms of final standings and home ice for the Avs, so neither team should back off here. Tuch is averaging 2.8 SOG over his last 10 games and figures to get a full workload here again. He’s great value at this price tag given the circumstances and overall consistency he brings.
Pavel Zacha, New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers ($4,400)
Zacha really paid off for us when the Devils played the Flyers in their series a couple of weeks ago, and he’s available at the same price. The winger is getting PP1 time and comes in averaging 10.2 DKFP per game over his last 10 starts, a stretch from which he’s also produced nine real-life points. The Flyers have the worst penalty kill in the league, so all of Jersey’s young forwards are in play here as value targets, but Zacha has been the most consistent of the bunch and is still the most attractive in terms of price. He offers cheap upside tonight in a prime matchup.
Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks ($8,200)
As mentioned above, the Stars are a team I expect to bounce back on Monday in a matchup with a Blackhawks squad they recorded 39 SOG against in their last outing. Oettinger looks likely to start here and has been decent for the Stars down the stretch, recording a .916 save percentage over his last 10 games. He’s looking to impress the team in what will one of his last outings of the year as they head into the offseason. Oettinger is in a good spot to grab you a win with Dallas as -140 on the ML.
Robin Lehner, Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche ($7,700)
Despite the tough matchup vs. the Avalanche here, I do like buying low on Lehner. The Golden Knights netminder has been solid over the last month or so, posting a 7-2-1 record and .918 save percentage over his last 10 starts. Lehner also gets a Colorado team here who is likely to be without Nathan MacKinnon ($8.900; lower body), and he’ll be on home ice, where he’s gone 10-0-2 this year. With Vegas capable of clinching the division with a win here, I like Lehner at this price against a MacKinnon-less Avs offense.
Value on Defense
Damon Severson, New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers ($3,400)
As mentioned above, the Devils players all get good bumps tonight given the matchup vs. the Flyers, who don’t defend anything well. Severson has been moved off and on the power play for the Devils this year but has been their go-to defensemen of late on the man advantage and remains extremely cheap here despite that fact. He’s actually produced seven points over his last 10 games and has averaged 23 minutes a game during that span. That kind of volume is hard to come by at this price, and the matchup being against one of the worst defensive teams in hockey means his upside is much greater than usual here. Severson is a great way to punt on defense today since his upside is equal to a lot of the bigger names on the slate given his recent usage and opponent.
Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets ($4,700)
The Canucks are just playing out the string, but they do have a great matchup tonight vs. the Jets, who have given up the 10th-most scoring chances against this year and rank just 16th in penalty kill efficiency. Hughes has played admirably this year despite the Canucks’ struggles and comes into this game with 36 points on the year — 17 of which have come on the power play. Pairing him with Bo Horvat ($6,100) or another Canuck forward at this price is cost-effective and gives you exposure to a power play unit that is in a good spot against a struggling squad in the Jets.
Ivan Provorov, Philadelphia Flyers vs. New Jersey Devils ($6,100)
We really want to target this Flyers-Devils game since these teams have combined for seven or more goals scored in three of their last four meetings. As much as I like to bash the Flyers, New Jersey has the worst penalty kill in the league, and Provorov is playing big minutes both on the power play and overall due to injuries on the back end for Philly. Having now hit 16 or more DKFP three times over his last 10 games, the upside tonight is big for Philly’s best offensive defenseman, and he makes for an essential part of any Flyers PP1 stack today.
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