Sometimes everything just goes your way. Thanks to a bizarre extra innings error, a masterful performance by Max Scherzer and 16 runs from the Cubs, we went a perfect 3-0 last Wednesday in article plays, bringing our record to 6-2 for the season. We’ll look to improve on that mark and finish April string during another busy slate of baseball.
Here are my favorite MLB bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Team Total: Cubs OV 3.5 Runs (-130)
This is a very interesting spot for the Cubs. Before we even touch on the actual game, it’s important to know that when this prop initially opened on Tuesday evening, it was 4.5 runs and it was paying plus-money. I liked it then and I still like it now. It’s possible the change is a reaction to Chicago’s injury report, as Javier Baez (hamstring) and Kris Bryant (biceps) are both question marks for Wednesday night; though it’s only the latter I really care about, and Bryant was available off the bench in last night’s loss. Speaking of, there’s also a chance this is an overreaction to the Cubs being shutout in that contest. Here’s the thing: Huascar Ynoa isn’t Ian Anderson. A league-leading 18.2% of the batted ball events Ynoa has induced so far this season have been barrels, which is a big reason his 5.31 expected ERA is a lot less palatable than his surface mark of 3.68. The Braves’ bullpen has also been a little shaky in 2021, walking 5.01 opponents per nine and running up a 4.33 xFIP.
Steven Matz: OV 4.5 Strikeouts (-139)
Trust me when I say that I was not looking to bet a Steven Matz strikeout prop when I opened up the DraftKings Sportsbook this morning. In fact, I’m a little worried about the sustainability of the left-hander’s current 27.2% strikeout rate, as a vast majority of his strikes have been called strikes, not swinging strikes. Matz comes into Wednesday with a 22.3% called strike rate — the second-highest mark among all qualified starters. Still, while that’s not necessarily sustainable, it’s not like a called strike is worth less in the box score. Matz has struck out at least five opponents in three of his four outings in 2021 and he’s consistently pitching deep into games. I would expect another quality start from the southpaw this evening as the Nationals have struggled to do much of anything without Juan Soto in the lineup. With that type of implied volume, it’s hard to imagine Matz not getting over this number, even if only slightly.
I know. There’s nothing sexy about taking a pretty substantial favorite on the moneyline; however, I think it’s fair to ask if Tyler Glasnow is getting enough respect here. Yes, Oakland is a team that just reeled off 13-straight victories, but when you look around the rest of Wednesday’s board, this line is pretty shallow by comparison. Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are -220 favorites. Jacob deGrom and the Mets are -295 favorites. Heck, Zack Greinke is a -225 favorite against the Mariners. Maybe Glasnow got a little beat up in his last outing, but his 1.86 expected ERA remains the fourth-lowest qualified mark in baseball. Cole Irving isn’t on his level, and while the lefty’s last two starts have been decent, the Rays aren’t the Tigers or the Orioles. To that point, Tampa is 40-15 as the favorite in its last 55 home games. There’s some value to be mined in this spot.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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