Hello, it’s Wednesday. Games will be played tonight and I’ll tell you about them.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Tonight’s game between the Tigers and White Sox has been postponed due to inclement weather.
Carlos Rodon, $9,800, Chicago White Sox (-210) vs. Detroit Tigers (+175) — The White Sox are once again massive favorites on the night going against the Tigers. This time, they’ll be sending lefty Carlos Rodon to the mound, who has gotten off to an unbelievable start. Aside from the no-hitter he threw against the Indians, Rodon has allowed one total run in 19 innings of work while striking out 24. All of his numbers check out as well, boasting a 2.97 FIP, a 16.0% swing-and-miss rate and standing 95% of the runners he’s let on base.
Meanwhile, the Tigers have literally been the worst offense in the league against lefties. This wasn’t the case last season but at least as of April 28, 2021 at 8:49 a.m. ET, they are. The Tigers wRC+ against lefties is somehow a 44. I didn’t even know that was possible (and the Braves are even lower at 39. How?). They have the lowest ISO at .078 and their wOBA of .227 is also the second-lowest aside from the Braves. The cherry on top is the K% they’ve logged as a team thus far at 33.5%. That is by far the highest in the majors. Truly, not much to hate about this start for Rodon.
Other notable favorite: Zack Greinke ($9,400; -210) vs. Seattle Mariners
Highest Projected Total
New York Yankees (-155; 5.5 runs) at Baltimore Orioles (+135; 3.5 runs) 9.5 runs — Once again, these teams are involved in the highest projected over, with o9.5 set at -110. I was very adamant about taking the under on the Yankees team total of 5.5 runs and it became a sweat late but it ultimately hit with only five runs scored. The under in this game also hit with six total runs scored, as the Yankees continue to be an under machine at 15-8.
Tonight, I won’t be as brave taking the under. We have Domingo German ($7,400) going for the Yankees and Dean Kremer ($5,900) for the Orioles. Both pitchers have done poorly and the numbers back it up. Both pitchers are throwing a TON of pitches early and not going deep into games. Kremer hasn’t made it through five innings in three starts and is averaging 72 pitches while German has seen the sixth inning once in three starts, averaging 79 pitches.
The Orioles o3.5 is where my eyes went for this one. This offense is sputtering, no denying that, but German doesn’t pose much of a threat. He’s never been an overly strong pitcher and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact at 46.8%.
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Weather Notes
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox - This game could feature some light rain but doesn’t look like enough to cause a delay.
Splits to Start
These stats will reflect 2020 numbers until May 1st.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Casey Mize, .439, 8.83
Vince Velasquez, .390, 5.09
Justin Dunn, .362, 7.31
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Zack Greinke, .234, 1.61
Kyle Hendricks, .241, 3.19
Erick Fedde, .255, 5.50
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Steven Matz, .448, 8.94
Johan Oviedo, .396, 5.83
Erick Fedde, .377, 6.70
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dane Dunning, .204, 3.35
Casey Mize, .265, 4.28
Taylor Widener, .277, 5.76
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers $9,800 — We talked about Rodon fairly extensively already and he is my top option for tonight. I cannot pass up on the extremely high strikeout ceiling Rodon will have tonight against a team that by far has the highest K% in the league against lefties. This once was a team that was EXTREMELY good against lefties last season but they all seem to be struggling at the same time. Rodon has three pitches in his arsenal that he throws, a fastball, slider and changeup. Against those pitches respectively, the Tigers ranks 28th, 14th and 10th.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Editor’s Note: Astros OF Yordan Alvarez (health protocols) is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Mariners.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners, $5,400 — Alvarez looks totally healthy and has put his knee issues behind him. Through 18 games this season, Alvarez is slashing .309/.355/.529 with two home runs and 14 RBI, good for an average of 8.7 DKFP. Tonight he’ll face Justin Dunn ($6,200) and his inability to throw strikes. Dunn has nearly walked as batters as he’s struck out, owning a K:BB ratio of 14:11 through 14 2⁄3 innings. Lefties have been a big problem for him since he joined the majors in 2019 and has a career .378 wOBA with a 8.02 FIP (!) and eight of the 12 home runs he’s allowed. Alvarez is having himself a nice series against the Mariners thus far, going 4-for-7 at the plate with two doubles, two RBI and run scored in two games.
Save Big by Drafting
David Dahl, Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels, $3,000 — I don’t think I’ve written up a single player from the Rangers this season so congrats to all involved for finally making it. Dahl doesn’t have flashy numbers to boast thus far but I like his matchup against Angels starter Alex Cobb ($7,600). In three starts, Cobb has already allowed 10 runs on 18 hits through just 14 1⁄3 innings against the Astros, Royals and White Sox.
Dahl has some sneaky power against righties and has posted a .200 ISO to go with a .310 wOBA and a 103 wRC+ thus far. Lefties have forever been an issue for Cobb as evidenced by the .337 wOBA and 4.96 FIP he had against them last season. I like going with this low risk play that’ll have no ownership but can still provide some pop.
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